Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

[Gordon]

I'm not confident for FC, but hopefully that we might get 10mm which will be so welcome at this point

Yes 10mm will feel like 10 inches atm! I think that'll be a big ask for us being even further west.

At least the 'bulls-eye' is still where it's needed most: north-east Vic, East Gippsland, and NSW south coast.

Btw I get really sick of the dismissiveness of the value of rain in these cases by some officials, including on the radio today. Really? As one who fought fires professionally in my youth, I know a little about this. Would they rather it didn't rain? Yes, it's not going to put the fires out, but it is a big improvement on 40C and zero humidity. Maybe there are a few morons out there who only understand black and white, but for the rest, please tell it like it is. We have a brain and can process the fact that the forecast rain may not be the long-term solution, but we are better off with it than without it.

[Tassiedave]

BOM don't seem too interested HillyBilly. They give Melbourne 1mm, Ballarat 0.2mm and Horsham 0mm in their latest forecast. They are a bit more optimistic about East Gippsland.

[dazrain]

Coldstream started at 6 and max was 36!

A 30 degree diurnal range!!

What is the diurnal record for Victoria ?

[stevco123]

Oh wow,i didn't realise places such as corryong and Rutherglen were going for 46 tomorrow

[Sean]

Bit off topic, but this footage is startling:

[hillybilly]

Rain looking much better on the progs this morning. EC now spreads solid falls across central and eastern areas, and parts of north central and the northwest. Other progs similar. They are all tending to peak the falls over the ranges in Gippsland which is where it is needed most. With such good model agreement you’d expect this to deliver, though there are always “winners” and “losers”.

Btw I get really sick of the dismissiveness of the value of rain in these cases by some officials, including on the radio today. Really? As one who fought fires professionally in my youth, I know a little about this

There is downside with nuisance rain (say a mm or two which makes things slippery but doesn’t change the fire behaviour) but I’ve never heard of a person in the bush or with fire services say they would not like rain. I suspect it’s quite context dependent. In some cases your best tool for fire is to is to simply burn the fuels so rain could be a problem. In others when you are actively defending property you don’t want to burn then rain has to be a blessing.

There’s a bit of a narrative that big fires get put out by big rains, but that doesn’t happen. The 1939, 1983, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2019 fires burnt for a long time after the worst days, but conditions slowly improved with some rain and cooler temperatures and they were eventually contained and suppressed. There were big rain after some of these fires, but they occurred weeks after the fire runs.

Btw stinker here this morning and very smoky. Not sure where the smoke is from. Currently 27C at 6am. Thankfully the front is only an hour or two away Out east will be very bad weather

[Didjman]

Doppler has the change in a line from Sunbury to Mt Dandenong at time of writing. 26c here atm.

[StratoBendigo]

We had the wind change a few hours ago but it's 34c. It's taking a while for the hot air to flush out.

Looking forward to 18c max tomorrow and potentially 10-15mm of rain. Can't wait!

[Didjman]

We had the wind change a few hours ago but it's 34c. It's taking a while for the hot air to flush out.

Looking forward to 18c max tomorrow and potentially 10-15mm of rain. Can't wait!

Temp here has risen to 29 but feels warmer with 38% humidity. Any rain tomorrow is welcome.

[StratoBendigo]

Spare a thought for Penrith in Western Sydney. Max of 48.4c so far today.

Incidentally, some good rain in outback WA. Giles has had 42mm since yesterday. Kalgoorlie only 22c atm...

[Adam38]

Those temps in western Sydney are frightening!!

[Sean]

Spare a thought for Penrith in Western Sydney. Max of 48.4c so far today.

Incidentally, some good rain in outback WA. Giles has had 42mm since yesterday. Kalgoorlie only 22c atm...

I wonder if they’ll hit 50? Still have time..

[StratoBendigo]

Spare a thought for Penrith in Western Sydney. Max of 48.4c so far today.

Incidentally, some good rain in outback WA. Giles has had 42mm since yesterday. Kalgoorlie only 22c atm...

I wonder if they’ll hit 50? Still have time..

I doubt it. It seems to have topped out at 48.6c.

Incidentally, Hume Hwy is closed at Euroa due to a bushfire.

[Sean]

2 people dead due to fire roaring across Kangaroo island...

The country is in a state of calamity right now.

Edit: Penrith hits 48.9!

[StratoBendigo]

Bad grassfire North of Huntly atm. I hope that doesn't get into the Kamarooka forest.

Cooling down here. Now 29c.

[Gordon]

Latest BOM forecasts suggesting 10-30mm of rain tomorrow - Tuesday through a number of locations through far south coast of NSW into East Gippsland and across to the Snowy Mtns/ NE Alpine. Chance of some follow-up in about a week.

[StratoBendigo]

Cabramurra AWS just reported 69c and 128 km/h....

[Macedonian]

My temp dropped to 15.5C at the same time that Penrith hit 48.9C.
14.5C now.
Jeez i hope we do get some rain.

[stevco123]

Cabramurra AWS just reported 69c and 128 km/h....

Yeah those fires are playing havoc there

[hillybilly]

23C here for a max and humid with a bit of hill fog and even some spits of drizzle. Hard to believe it was near 30C at 6am. So lucky in central with the timing of the front, but just awful further north and east. Lots of records.

Perhaps most significant.
44.0C at Canberra broke the record of 42.8C from Acton in 1939.
48.9C at Penrith is a new Sydney metro record breaking the 47.8.C from 1939. It’s also the highest temperature in any metro area, passing the Roseworthy 48.3C from January 2019
Anticipate almost every elevated site in the southeast has set a new record. Some of the numbers are astonishing such as 38.0Cat Mt Boyce. Cabramurra went past 60C as the fire went through

Terrible fires out east and in NSW. Losses will be severe. So sad to see so many beautiful towns and places going through this.

Rain is looking better on the models. EC and UK both have 10-40mm for central and east. They are the best two models so fingers crossed. CMC and GFS have the heavier rain a touch further northeast, so central tending to get more like 5-10mm.

Substantial system for late next week with a strong front and tropical infeed.