Series of cold fronts 23-30 April

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Gordon
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Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:18 am

Looks like a change back to some serious weather, as a sequence of fronts get progressively stronger into next week. Tonight's front is the weakest and slides south after delivering a few mms to west and central.

Then Saturday night/ Sunday sees a stronger front; and possibly an even more powerful one next Wednesday. WATL has widespread 15-25mm falls for the date range, while the latest GFS has large areas of 50mm plus, and even 75mm in the Alps. Could get quite cold too.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:27 am

Yes, nice upgrades in most forecast models this morning for the last week of April. Many of the local farmers are busy sowing at present, and good rains will really kick off the crops in a big way.

Agriculture seems to be the shining light in the Australian economy this year...
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:42 am

Radar over SA looks great.
Nice day but got slight chill in the breeze..
get the wood in while its dry..

Edit.. saturday 90% of 10 to 20mm, test those 100mm downpipes out and flatten the back filled trenches ..
QldTwister
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Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:26 pm

Nice band of rain in SA with some solid thunderstorms behind dropping 25mm or so great for them, nice frontal cloud band many more of these in the coming months should be great

hopefully 1-5mm in the W and NW before only light stuff here

Bigg one Sunday more for everyone

Mid next week looking cold and wet in the usual spots hoping upper trough and moisture can combine for nice thick rainband for all ahead of the cold blast.
Bring on the heat and stroms
Wilko
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Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:40 pm

Brief heavy shower
A little more to come
Skywalker
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Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:59 pm

I hope it rains Sunday for the BOM's sake, otherwise they will end up with egg on their faces. ;)

Sunday 26 April
Summary

Min 15
Max 19
Rain easing to a shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 100%
Melbourne area
Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain during the morning then a medium (40%) chance of showers until late afternoon. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
QldTwister
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Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:44 pm

WOW if EC is right next week HUGE winds, rain, hail, snow, gales, flooding, seas, coastal erosion and storms

Though should it will bomb like 500kms further west we just get typical front with SW flow but will be wet and windy

Intresting times

Sundays front could be wet here too easy 10-15mm maybe more hoping farming areas up north get it to
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:11 am

EC and and CMC are showing a brutal system for next week. Few days out so will evolve, but hasn’t been wiggling much. Strong front with long fetch southerlies, followed by a deep low somewhere near Bass Strait. Heavy falls, gales on the coast, large waves and solid storm surge and heavy snow in the alps.

Looks slow to clear. Warm up system for Sunday :D

Just shy of 9mm last night here at Walkerville but just 1mm back in FC.
Tassiedave
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Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:12 am

Tas rain last night: Darwin Dam 21mm, Mt Barrow 12mm, Wynyard 7mm, Devonport 6.4mm, Launceston 6mm, Hobart 0mm
Wilko
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Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:06 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:11 am
EC and and CMC are showing a brutal system for next week. Few days out so will evolve, but hasn’t been wiggling much. Strong front with long fetch southerlies, followed by a deep low somewhere near Bass Strait. Heavy falls, gales on the coast, large waves and solid storm surge and heavy snow in the alps.

Looks slow to clear. Warm up system for Sunday :D

Just shy of 9mm last night here at Walkerville but just 1mm back in FC.
2mm onight
HUGE System next week :P
Tassiedave
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Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:05 pm

OK So GFS 00z gave southern Tasmania about 25mm and now the 06z run gives it 200mm !!!!
QldTwister
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Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:14 pm

Yep tassie dave all depends on where that low or muliple lows form somwere will get huge 100-200mm totals tassie gonna be hammered get ready

MAGICAL DAY TODAY WOW PREFECT :D :D

WOW, HUGE system mid next week its on indeed from Wednesday Gales, Rain, Hail, Snow, Flooding just wild, even worst in Tas.
If GFS came off WOW heavy rain and land gales in West Vic as deep low wraps up over western Vic.
So many lows in such a massive upper trough and low cuts off over us and to our east and becomes very slow moving

Little for the north after the front but on and south pretty wet 4 days and east of Melb very wet Thurs Fri Sat easy 50-100mm in the SW flow.

First off Saturday night into Sunday widespread rain across the state from the west easy 10-20mm for most, great for many of the Ag areas in North VIc classic Autumn break right on time Anazc day night, though right on the murray only 5-10mm up to 30mm in the hills I think if not more.
5 to 15 for Melb maybe more in far E, NE burbs

Mon Tues nice sunny ENJOY IT

Showers and TS develop Tues night from the north, widespread by Wednesday morning for Central and NE Vic with heavy rainfall in the NE, easy 30-50mm with just this. While front moves into the West with band of rain and cold wind change. Widespread rain and showers right across the state with the front then cold behind it with showers local hail and thunder. Sad it does not have a strong tropical link if it did be a huge 30-50mm rainband for much of the state much of the inland and much of eastern Ausatralia

Thurs Fri and maybe Saturday 3 days of cyclonic SW gales with showers, local hail and thunder tending to rain at times in central Vic East of Melb and west and south gippy, Sw coast and NE ranges.

By Next Saturday 80-150mm in the NE and East of Melb
30-50mm much of south and mount Vic with isol 80mm
15-30mm in N and W

Big wild week ahead with everything in it
Watch for smaller lows to be flung up the back side on this low Thurs and Fri for crazy winds and rain Tas going to get pounded and eastern NSW should also do well

Enjoy the sun tomorrow
Bring on the heat and stroms
snowfall
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Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm

Looking interesting for mid to late next week. Models are showing some pretty wild weather and decent falls across large parts of Vic. It’s still a fair way out, so of course it could change between now and then, but if it comes to pass it might be our first major cold outbreak for the year.

19.8c here today and dead calm. Felt quite warm in the sun.
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hillybilly
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Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:38 am

EC and GFS both holding big falls and remarkable cold next week. Should see substantial low level snow (thinking to about 800m). City needs about 40mm between now and 9am on Thursday to set a new record for January to end of April which has to be a chance. Crazy weather, and the opposite of the last couple of years :o

Coasts will take a battering. Down at Walkerville and the beaches have been badly damaged in the past week. They looked better after a fairly gentle summer, but have lost a lot of sand this week. Spots like Inverloch, Waratah Bay, Venus Bay and Sandy Point could see substantial erosion again depending on the exact placement of the low.

Tomorrow looks like a solid warmup. Expecting 20mm give or take in the Nongs. Might score a rumble early.
StratoBendigo
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Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:16 pm

It could be an interesting night tonight. EC and others chiming in with 30mm.

Certainly an April to remember.
Tassiedave
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Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:26 pm

The LOW at the end of the week looks to be a bit further east and quicker moving than expected?
QldTwister
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Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:31 pm

Yeah tonight is going to be a REAL SOAKER with widespread 20-40mm falls for much of the state a True AUTUMN break :D :D

Huge area of rain in SA just feeding into western Vic everyone but East Gippy, on the Murray in the NW and the far SW should do very well out of this.
Monthly falls for many VERY WELCOME and prefect start to cropping season for much of SA and VIC

Easy 20mm+ in and around Melb tonight and early morning, maybe even 30mm for northern and eastern Melb wet start start to a big week
Big front Wednesday very wet and stormy but low looking to wind up in the Tasmen as usual but front Wed and SW flow on Thursday will be wet and COLD

NE Vic will be very wet as to E of Melb and WnS Gippy Tuesday night to Friday night, easy 50-100mm for most up to 150mm for week in NE Vic, WET :o
Good week of weather ahead bloodly COLD from Wedesday night to Sunday.

SB enjoy the rain in Bendgio tonight going to get very wet easy 25-40mm for you and surrounds sure there be a few 50mm falls too by 9am
Impressive rainband peaking at right time
Loving these Indian Ocean infeeds going to be a long wet cold windy winter bring on the floods

Think that record is looking good HB provided Wed rainband drops 20mm as tonight should easily do that if not more

Enjoy the rain all

PS how good is the RAINBOW radar Rain over ALL of western Vic covered in rain so good :D :D
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:05 am

Band on Radar across 2 States is long and wide,
A tough day on shovel paid off, not so on the body aches,
Pipes laid, crushed rock back filled.
Lots of clay coloured water around.
StratoBendigo
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Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:47 am

It's been steadily raining but with gradually increasing intensity for a few hours. Close to 20mm so far.

Some places in the Wimmera already over 30mm.
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hillybilly
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Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:52 am

Wet night in the Nongs. Just passed 32mm here. Best falls (which is typical in moist northwesterly feeds) in the southern Nongs and on the backside towards Silvan. A couple of stations showing nearly 40mm, with most in the 30 to 35mm range. MTD for us is now a very healthy 220mm and YTD is 684mm (and should pass 700mm by Thursday). Looks to be the wettest start to a year since 1935 (which saw about 868mm at the end of April, our local record).

Melbourne city has seen 374mm (record is 408mm in 1924). Probably a bit much to catch up, but you never know.

Should see another 20mm or more on Wednesday into early Thursday before the month cuts off at 9am. The system for later this week looks like a cracker. Could well see a further 100mm here going off EC.
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