Strong front and cutoff low: May 20-25

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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hillybilly
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Sat May 16, 2020 6:29 am

Next system showing up in the progs with a strong front likely to approach Vic on Wednesday which cuts off into a low somewhere near the Tasman Sea. The exact location and movement of the low is uncertain, but currently looks like it will form off the south coast of NSW and drift north.

Wednesday starts off with strengthening Northerly winds and a band of showers or rain. The system is cold with 850Ts likely to be lower than -3C at their coldest, with snow possible down to around 700 or 800m. As the system winds up it gets warmer, so initial heavy snow in the alps could well turn into heavy rain later.

Rain totals will depend a lot on the final location for the low, but currently looks like 25-75mm widespread for eastern areas, but lighter in the west and northwest.
flyfisher
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Sat May 16, 2020 10:06 am

This is going to be a great year I think, negative IOD plus La Nina - we all remember the last time that happened. Looking forward to this next system and the ones to come :D
Tassiedave
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Sun May 17, 2020 7:53 am

Fair bit of divergence on the models this morning. GFS has a LOW forming over South East Queensland and dumping heaps of rain there later in the week. ACCESS G has a LOW forming off Eastern Victoria but a bit offshore.
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Didjman
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Sun May 17, 2020 4:17 pm

It's looking like NSW is going to get slammed from an ECL Thursday to Sunday (some models have it extending northward in some form also). Our worst day windwise looks like being Wednesday at this stage.
Thoughts anyone?
Tassiedave
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Sun May 17, 2020 5:46 pm

Tas temps today: St Helens 19.3, Larapuna 19.0, Ouse 18.5, Launceston 16.6, Smithton 16.5, Hobart 15.9
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hillybilly
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Mon May 18, 2020 6:42 am

Great weekend to be out in the garden and forest. Now gonna take a week to get over all the exercise :D

Still on track for a solid system. Looks like forming a long lived block in the Tasman Sea so a long period of southerlies for us, and one would expect lots of showers for Gippsland. Looks like 25-50mm for the Nongs. Big waves on the east coast which could cause trouble for them :?
Skywalker
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Mon May 18, 2020 2:19 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 6:42 am
Big waves on the east coast which could cause trouble for them
There is an article in today's Age discussing the erosion issues currently facing Victorian coastal communities.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/c ... 54tpu.html
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
stevco123
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Mon May 18, 2020 9:10 pm

Erosion is one thing that baffles me. Doesn't basic physics tell us that water will naturally erode the edges of beaches regardless. Also weren't the areas around inverloch covered in water once upon a time, many metres above the current ground level?
Probably a discussion for another thread, but just baffles me, that's all
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hillybilly
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Tue May 19, 2020 6:10 am

stevco123 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:10 pm
Erosion is one thing that baffles me. Doesn't basic physics tell us that water will naturally erode the edges of beaches regardless. Also weren't the areas around inverloch covered in water once upon a time, many metres above the current ground level?
Probably a discussion for another thread, but just baffles me, that's all
With stable sea level beaches should be more or less in equilibrium. Some will come and go, but over time and over regions they should revert back to the average. That changes when you have rising or lowering sea level. Each cm of sea level translates into an average of 1cm of recession. We’ve now seen about 30cm since 1900 and are seeing that play our rapidly around the world. Expect your news feed to be full of articles going forwards :?

The coast around Inverloch used to sit about 50-100m further inland 6000 years ago. At this point sea level appears to have been about 1m higher, though details are a bit uncertain as parts of that coast are rising. The fault line known as the. Waratah Fault is seeing Cape Liptrap rise at a rate of between 2 and 4mm per century which isn’t a lot on human time scales, but adds to metres over Millenia.

The peak around 5000 years ago was at a time when global temperatures were about the same as now or probably a bit cooler. That tells you how much rise is still coming our way even if there is no further rise. Glaciers and ice sheets take a long time to catch up with temperatures.

I find erosion really interesting as it’s the Australian equivalent of glaciers. It’s also a very odd extreme as eventually as the trend continues you get very extreme impacts from quite minor systems. It turns out that with the rate of sea level rise that the 1 in 50 year storm surge doubles in frequency every five years.

Progs holding on what promises to be a complex system. First trough tomorrow morning, second around Thursday morning and then possibly another around Saturday morning. Deep low forms off the NSW coast near Sydney. Could be a nasty system for them, but details matter a lot with these lows usually having multiple mesoscale centres.

Btw could even get a May WA Tropical cyclone around Sunday. Could be big rain producer for northwest OZ. Too early to call it as tropical or ex tropical at landfall. Will have to check if this has happened before :?:
QldTwister
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Tue May 19, 2020 6:45 pm

Yeah nothing to exciting in Vic normal week in autumn with fronts rain and colder but boy weather around the rest of the country over the coming week going to be very impressive indeed.

In the tropical north a huge cloudband with widespread rain with record cold very out of season up there.
Then a possible TC for WA early next week with widespread heavy rain over much of WA.
Big slow moving ECL off Nsw with dmaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Back in Vic showers, rain areas and thunderstorms across much of the state tonight weakening during tomorrow
Stronger front hits SW tomorrow night but weakens across the state on Thursday and cuts off and then bombs in the Tasmen
Then DAYS of Southerlys for Vic till at least early next week BOOO

10 to 30mm for most of South and Mount Vic by Friday up to 50mm in the E and wet spots E of Melbourne
This will keep the wettest on record in Melb ticking along

Little rain in the N and NW this week and most of next
Fronts look to stand up even further as we head into June allowing more chances for linking up with IO moisture

The wet wild 9 months ahead is about to begin get excited this coming week im sure will be just a tatse
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Tue May 19, 2020 8:41 pm

Mild windy one here with a few spots. Radar does look promising for some heavy showers and perhaps a rumble for most overnight. Second shot about this time tomorrow with a solid front.

TC developing off WA and deep ECL in the Tasman. Suddenly the weather is getting lively and the Indian Ocean starting to gain traction.
stevco123
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Tue May 19, 2020 11:27 pm

Whatever happened to Jasminestorm? I miss her input on here
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Supercellimpact
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Tue May 19, 2020 11:51 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 11:27 pm
Whatever happened to Jasminestorm? I miss her input on here
Last active:Mon May 04, 2020 6:43 pm
stevco123
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Wed May 20, 2020 1:41 am

Thunder and lightning here with this incoming band of what appears to be heavy rain
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SC.
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Wed May 20, 2020 1:43 am

stevco123 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:41 am
Thunder and lightning here with this incoming band of what appears to be heavy rain
Same here Steve!
Matt

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Didjman
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Wed May 20, 2020 1:44 am

One of the best storms in recent times! Continous thunder/lightning and max rain rate of 144mm/hr (for 20secs). 6mm total with the band that went through
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hillybilly
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Wed May 20, 2020 2:03 am

Jeepers crazy storm up here. Not a lot of rain (fast moving) but strobe lightning. Woke up hot in bed just before it to a temp in the mid teens :o

Yep, miss Jasmine’s input. Was quality :)
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Wed May 20, 2020 2:14 am

Lounge room has become a bed room, less distance from trees.
That was violently fierce. Not even sure of what words describe that Monster.
Looked like some black on radar ? Around Lilydale.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Wed May 20, 2020 3:02 am

Vic emergency showing solid line of building damage @ Grovedale Warn Ponds.
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