Deep low followed by troughs / fronts May 30 / 31

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Didjman
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Mon May 25, 2020 7:06 pm

I will jump in with a new thread :D Access G, EC and GFS are indicating a possible deep low approaching the west coast of Tas then diving SE. Currently suggesting cold gales over the 2 days. Does not look like much rain atm. Still 4 days out but worth a thread.
snowfall
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Mon May 25, 2020 7:42 pm

Yeah models generally indicating a trend toward colder weather and showers from Sunday, with a deep low heading just south of Tasmania. Before that, a stretch of mostly fine weather.

It has been interesting to observe the amount of cloud coming from the Indian Ocean off northwest Australia. It has clearly become quite active with the warmer SSTs, and fingers crossed a precursor to a negative IOD.

Sunny day here today and a max of 11.8c. Looks to be quite a cold night ahead with clear skies and no wind - currently 6.8c here.
stevco123
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Tue May 26, 2020 8:55 am

Thick fog this morning, although starting to already clear. Should be a nice day
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
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Wed May 27, 2020 6:42 am

EC and GFS are both starting to look better for this. First sneaky but dying trough for today. Perhaps a shower or two.

Could be half decent cold outbreak for early June. EC 850Ts touching -3C. Also potential for another major storm surge event. The huge storm in WA has set up a massive coastally trapped wave with water 30-60cm above normal. That’s now moving across the Great Australia bight and will be hitting Victoria late this week into early next week. If we get a solid blow it could be a repeat of what happened a couple of weeks back.
Derwent
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Wed May 27, 2020 10:15 am

A very thick Jerry fog rolling down the Derwent and some frosty mornings for Hobart. Let's hope what what you peeps are seeing comes off. Hobart going for a run of dry weather of late and even an 18c forecast in the days . Really need some of these fronts to come off now , let's hope those highs don't kill this one.
StratoBendigo
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Wed May 27, 2020 1:38 pm

The AAO has drifted off into +ve territory (i.e. High latitude anti-cyclone dominance): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _ensm.html

Thus the lack of powerful cold fronts right now. It should eventually bounce back into the -ve's, although we might have to wait a little while. Looks like perhaps 10-15 mm for us on Sunday-Monday at this stage since the trough will be in the right place, and I suspect the Alps might get up to 30cm of fresh snow.
flyfisher
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Wed May 27, 2020 4:11 pm

Yes, it's looking rather high pressure dominated for a while. Also models are backing off on the - IOD, infact BOM's consensus approaches +IOD in spring which is not good.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Upcoming winds in the tropical Indian ocean are moving to more easterly too in the key areas.

We may miss our big chance for flood rains in the most hard hit areas if things take too long - but La Nina is still on track in the pacific.

Hoping this weekend delivers, particularly for NE Vic.
Tassiedave
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Wed May 27, 2020 7:04 pm

Tas temps today: Larapuna 18.6, Campania 17.6, Strahan 17.3, Hobart Airport 17.0, Smithton 16.4, Launceston 16.0, Hobart 15.1
StratoBendigo
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Wed May 27, 2020 7:24 pm

flyfisher wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 4:11 pm
Yes, it's looking rather high pressure dominated for a while. Also models are backing off on the - IOD, infact BOM's consensus approaches +IOD in spring which is not good.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Upcoming winds in the tropical Indian ocean are moving to more easterly too in the key areas.

We may miss our big chance for flood rains in the most hard hit areas if things take too long - but La Nina is still on track in the pacific.

Hoping this weekend delivers, particularly for NE Vic.
Forecast accuracy for IOD at this time of year is notoriously inaccurate. I think you will find that the recent cyclone in Bay of Bengal has adversely skewed recent model outputs.
Gordon
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Thu May 28, 2020 2:39 pm

Not that I'm a huge fan of BOM's rainfall outlooks, but here is today's upbeat issue (for what it's worth): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... ll/summary

Back on (more immediate) topic, and this system is still looking good, particularly on the latest BOM 4 day charts, and especially for later Sunday.
Derwent
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Thu May 28, 2020 10:41 pm

Keeping fingers crossed that Hobart receives something from this system Sat and Sun. Because we have only 16mm of rain from an average of 46mm for May.
Very poor after such what I describe as an upbeat chance of average or above average rains forecast by the BOM for Autumn down this way. And by next Wednesday we are back to massive summer set up highs hanging for a week at least. Please don't give us another dud Winter 😥
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hillybilly
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Fri May 29, 2020 6:56 am

Progs looking pretty shaky for this event now. Starting to split for Monday between a fast front and a cut off which shoot up into NSW. Neither looks great for rainfall. May destined to finish below average now for most of Vic :(

The IOD forecasts are responding to the two Indian Ocean TCs which were both rare - one record strong, another almost record late. There could also be aTC near the Horn of Africa next week. The IOD is very sensitive to weather variations ATM, so expect wiggles if this odd weather continues. The balance of the models still favour a negative IOD, so hopefully that is what develops.

Meanwhile two mild and partly cloudy to sunny days ahead before a dying front for Sunday.
Tassiedave
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Fri May 29, 2020 6:37 pm

Tas temps today: Campania 19.1, Hobart 18.9, Bushy Park 18.9, Larapuna 18.3, St Helens 16.7, Launceston 15.5
Derwent
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Fri May 29, 2020 9:50 pm

Yes 19c in Hobart today , pretty typical of late unfortunately. Not great news now the fronts , look likely to to be dry and windy.
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hillybilly
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Sat May 30, 2020 6:52 am

Unstable nwly brewing for tomorrow with a dying front. Looks a bit unstable so could well be the odd heavier shower and perhaps a rumble.

Front for Monday looks increasingly like it will wave near Mt Gambier and move north into NSW as a weakening trough. That scenario will put heavy falls over western Vic, but leave much of the rest of Vic in a rainfall hole. A couple of hundred kms east and it would be very wet for central, so still a bit uncertain on the details. A cold system so could well see some snow at spots like Trentham and Macedon, but a degree or two too warm for the Nongs.

Today looks mild, sunny and windy.
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Didjman
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Sat May 30, 2020 9:03 pm

I went with my son up the Mt Buniniong fire tower this arvo. We were blown sideways by what would have had to have been close to 100klm / hr winds!
Gordon
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Sat May 30, 2020 10:22 pm

EC has suddenly decided to gives us 30mm for Monday :o .

Probably an aberration, but surprising on 24 hours out! (Possibly getting very cold too.) It'll be interesting to see how the models look tomorrow morning.
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hillybilly
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Sun May 31, 2020 6:47 am

Gordon wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 10:22 pm
EC has suddenly decided to gives us 30mm for Monday :o .

Probably an aberration, but surprising on 24 hours out! (Possibly getting very cold too.) It'll be interesting to see how the models look tomorrow morning.
Quite an upgrade on both EC and GFS on the latest runs. The front waves a couple of hundred kms further east so most of Vic apart from the rainshadowed NW and East Gippsland do well. It has about 40mm here, which will be a nice way to start the month after a lean May.

Still a cold system, though as it waves it pinches the cold air so not as cold further east. Still expecting snow to fairly low levels out west, including the Grampians while Macedon and Trentham have to be a decent chance. With persistent showers a good chance the freezing level will lower locally.

Today looks blustery and showery though hit and miss. Still thinking a rumble is possible.
flyfisher
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Sun May 31, 2020 9:05 am

Beyond this system it looks just crapola. The Tasman is very blocking right now. Cutoff Tasman lows and block highs as far as the models can forecast. We have got the moisture from both sides of the continent but cannot get the southern systems to take advantage of it. We need a SSW event of Antarctica to get things happening and looking at 70hp that does not seem likely right now.
Derwent
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Sun May 31, 2020 11:02 am

Yes certainly crapola down in Hobart as well. Yet another mild sunny day to end the month . Certainly looking a long stretch of blocking Highs ahead.
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