Week of big highs with frost and fog: June 6-14

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hillybilly
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Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:54 am

Thread for a week of anticyclonic weather ahead. Might be some sneaky showers on Saturday and early Sunday then day after day of day of frosty or foggy mornings then sunny arvos. If fog hangs on with cold uppers could see some locally very cold maxima, though the uppers warm through the week so highs will rise. Signs of a decent front and low around Sunday next week.
Gordon
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Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:26 pm

Thanks HB, good to have a date-relevant thread - even if it's not exciting weather. Actually looking forward to a break from the wind and rain.

Surprising agreement from GFS, EC and ACCESS for that decent-looking system a week away, though too far out to get fixated on just yet :).
QldTwister
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Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:59 pm

Next weekend looking interesting all models once again forecasting a huge upper trough cutting off over the SE

Once again not looking like a good strong Indian ocean link of moisture with this system again relaying on strong dynamics, if there was we all be getting 20-40mm, inland to which set them up for winter crops. Looks like there will be Pacific Ocean moisture so central and east do well and coastal areas

A long week of Model waltzing to come but either way big event for the SE I think next weekend into early next week YAY

Cold mornings and bright sunny days with light winds and warm sunshine fine by me :D :D :D
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:55 am

Chilly morning in the Nongs with a min of 3.5C. Nice day ahead. Squeezed out nearly a mm yesterday from fog and mizzle. Some locally heavier falls with a few spots over 10mm in the hills around Geelong.
snowfall
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Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:29 am

Cold and wet here this morning - 5.7c and drizzling. We've had 5.2mm since yesterday afternoon, mostly drizzle but with a few brief heavier showers mixed in.
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hillybilly
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Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:36 am

Nice cold uppers with this high. Max of 6.6C in FC yesterday and in this morning of 3C. Tomorrow morning should bring the coldest morning of the sequence. Be interesting to see how warm it gets with a weak mid winter sun and some stratus likely to develop.

Front for the coming weekend is flattening :(
StratoBendigo
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Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:23 am

This month is starting to look a bit like June 2017. Although perhaps with colder temps. Hopefully the AAO returns back to normal or -ve in July, because the rest of this month looks very dull.

-3 degC at our place this morning. A savage frost outside.
Derwent
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Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:06 pm

Hi from Hobart, well today's synoptic looks like reels on jackpot machine. All lined up highs. Still waiting since April from the last decent front. Next weekend is a wait and see, but I not getting excited .
snowfall
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Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:46 pm

It’s a shame we’re under a belt of highs. It’s early days, but I suspect this will be our first below average month for rainfall here this year, unless something really significant happens late in the month. Had a couple of cold days here - max yesterday of 8.2c and 9.8c today. Today’s max was only brief when the sun popped out. Otherwise mostly below 8c for the day. Had just over 6mm for the weekend, mostly from drizzle.

Currently 6.4c, but there’s a fair amount of cloud cover, which will need to clear if we are to get down to our forecast -1c tonight.
stevco123
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Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:36 pm

A balmy 8 degrees here with thick cloud cover, even the city is cooler at 5.9
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
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Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:02 am

Max of 8.6C here yesterday and currently hovering between 3 and 4C. Haven’t been out but expect a decent frost in the lower parts of the garden. Few mild days coming up now, and weekend looks blustery but not a lot in it. Maybe 20mm here if we get lucky. We got lucky at the start of the month with 50mm, so still on track for average, though most spots are not nearly as lucky atm.

June often brings boring weather, so hopefully this spell passes and we go back to some proper winter weather.
Dane
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Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:35 am

Down to minus 1.8c here this morning Frost everywhere. Airport got down to minus 3.5c.
Pretty cold when I started my shift on the School crossing this morning.
Car thermometer was still showing Minus 1 when when I got there.
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hillybilly
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Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:30 pm

Really variable frost here today with parts of the garden frozen solid while others had a heavy dew. My AWS near the top of the block dropped to 3.4C, while the frost suggested more like a 0C minimum in the dips. Crept up to a sunny 8.5C max.

Not much liking the progs. Huge highs with a blustery and mild period inbetween. Will start drying things out a bit, which isn’t ideal in the middle of winter. Positive SAM really digging in atm.
stevco123
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Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:36 pm

Surprising to see the thermometer bottomed out at 0.2 this morning. I was convinced the cloud cover would stick around. Sunny day with high cloud moving in late
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
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Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:44 am

Pretty uneventful day here yesterday with min of 7C and max of 11C.

Today looks like another mild one and similar Friday and Saturday.

Progs starting to up the weekend system. Will be fading but current model runs have locally 10-20mm in the west, along the north of the divide and parts of east central. The rainshadowing looks strong, so plains west of Melbourne and East Gippsland could miss out. It’s not a particularly cold system so not much of a snow producer away from the peaks. Bit of a follow up around Tuesday.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:14 am

A frosty 0 degC this morning and now high cloud. Yesterday was a surprisingly warm 16c.

Perhaps 10mm for us over the weekend which will be welcome. But it looks like a heatwave (relatively speaking) moving into late-June :x

I think that when it breaks down we might get some decent rainfall in July.
stevco123
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Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:47 am

3 frosty mornings in a row and a 4th likely tomorrow morning.

June is my most hated month. It is nearly always boring. I wouldn't expect anything until mid July
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
snowfall
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Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:25 am

Cold mornings here the past few days, though not quite as cold as some of those in lower lying areas. 1.7c, 0.5c, 3.3c, and 2.5c for the past four mornings.

I'm not expecting much in the way of rain for the coming weekend here, but the northern side of the central ranges may do OK. June is actually one of our wetter months on average, but it would appear this won't be the case this year. Just have to hope the anticyclonic blocking pattern breaks down soon. The southern Indian ocean temperature is still running warmer than average, then hopefully we will tap some extra moisture in the westerlies assuming the AAO shifts negative at some point this winter.
Derwent
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Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:39 am

Hobart still running 1.3 c day time over. The frosty nights did help get overnights around average. Still only had 2 mms or so of rain, so looking like another dry one.
Daytime temperatures forecast to well over average in the next 5 days . :|
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hillybilly
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Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:51 am

Feels like groundhog day atm. Chilly mornings and mild sunny (for winter) arvos. Feels like a long time since we had some proper rain (now approaching two weeks), which is pretty lengthy for winter, but not unheard of. Not much liking the weekends progs. Looks ok for the far west and northern slopes, but the rest of us will probably get blustery winds and not much else. A mild system, so little if any snow.

Next week is starting to show signs that the pattern might break down, but models have a big split. EC and CMC develop a deep slow cutofff, while GFS and ACCESS keep the high going.
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