Winter Solstice being marked with a BANG

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Didjman
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Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:23 am

As mentioned in a previous thread, the winter solstice looks like being marked with a bang weatherwise. Models are showing a deep cutoff low crossing the Bight and surging up through Vic. It's looking like widespread rain, gales, snow and a storm surge for SE Oz - starting from Wednesday 17th June.
Tassiedave
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Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:42 am

Tas rain last 24 hrs: Mt Read 63mm, Strahan 27mm, Mt Victoria 27mm, Wynyard 18mm, Scottsdale 17mm, Launceston 3mm, Hobart 0.8mm
StratoBendigo
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Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:20 am

Another 3mm of drizzle overnight. 10mm for the event.

It's gone warm and humid now with the Westerly coming off the warm waters of the Bight.

The coming weekend looks interesting with potential for 15-30 mm at this stage, although the High ridging underneath the cutoff Low will probably see sub-tropical advection from the NE afterwards.
Tassiedave
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Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:52 am

Tas rainfall last 24 hrs: Mount Read 38mm, Strathgordon 28mm, Mt Barrow 25mm, Tea Tree 11mm, Scottsdale 8.8mm, Launceston 0.4mm
StratoBendigo
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Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:42 am

Looks more like a classic cold outbreak this weekend and into next week with a cutoff low and then follow up cold fronts.
Tassiedave
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Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:05 pm

With each run of GFS this event looks less significant..
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hillybilly
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Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:25 am

Latest EC and GFS are looking very good. Not an overly cold system, but cold enough. Should be a big rain producer, though details will depend a lot on the exact track.
StratoBendigo
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Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:22 am

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:25 am
Latest EC and GFS are looking very good. Not an overly cold system, but cold enough. Should be a big rain producer, though details will depend a lot on the exact track.
Yeah, looks like about 20mm for here - that should get the creeks running again nicely. But given that it's winter solstice, even moderately cold systems result in very cold day time temps. We'll be lucky to get to 10c on Sunday and Monday.
QldTwister
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Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:32 pm

It’s a VERY impressive upper system, huge upper low, slow moving over SE Aus with multiple lows spinning around each other, then a Tasman Sea low early next week.
I wish this system had some decent tropical connection though this would mean widespread 30-50mm for almost everyone and well inland too, with 80-150mm in the Hills and dams with isol 250mm for wet spots, this would set up crops for the coming months but also give everything a good flush with flooding likely.
It’s such a waste of amazing upper dynamics and such a large pool of cold air slowly moving across SE Aus
Regardless still impressive and many will see at least 10-20mm Fri to Mon with 50-100mm in the NE and parts of SW coast wet parts east of Melb and maybe parts of east gippy or north central depending on tracks of lows etc.

Active few days, wintery few days, the Adel hills likely to get whacked with days of strong winds and heavy rain on the back sides of these Low
Impressive system and be good to watch hoping the dry parts of NW Vic and East Gippy can do well from this weekends weather event
Prob see 30mm here if not more not really needed as things are pretty wet muddy and slushy right now with over 600mm YTD

Think July to Dec going to be wet with fronts will be more regular July to Oct
Bring on the heat and stroms
Wilko
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Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:00 pm

Yes models seem to place the bulk of rain to NE ranges and SW coast however the rain could end up in Central areas with this very complex system
Multiple lows and cool to cold weather coming up...probably lengthy periods of fine weather dependant on the exact position of the low/s
In any case a very interesting system to look out for..
Wilko
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Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:41 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
4 day synoptic look really encouraging for a lengthy spell of stormy weather !
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hillybilly
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:36 am

Progs are wiggling up or down. Am thinking 10-25mm west, 15-40mm central and 50-100mm northeast. Gippsland depends a lot on the details with a wrap around likely around Monday or Tuesday.

Rain developing later today with winds picking up. Then a broad low spinning over Vic for Sunday. Those broad cold cold lows are often frustrating with a rain donut pattern and showers training so some spots get zilch while others get buckets.

Monday into Tuesday will see a low develop near eastern Bass Strait. Details matter a lot as it could push heavy rain into central and west Gippsland.

Looks pretty good for snow, though it’s not an overly cold system so will be marginal in lower alpine areas and could see sleet or rain mix in and out.
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Didjman
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:44 pm

Satpic loop shows a small circulation winding up and barrelling due east for Adelaide!
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:54 am

First distant thunder
No rain yet, 3.50am
Edit 4.15. "Heavy Rain"
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hillybilly
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:06 am

Jeepers that was heavy this morning. Hit here with a bang at 4:30am with a peak rainfall rate of 105mm/hr. Just shy of 10mm.

Much of Vic will sit in the middle of a rain donut today, with showers rotating around a broad and diffuse low. Will be heavy in the northeast, but much of Vic will have pretty sparse showers. It’s a mild airmass so little if any snow, and quite warm in the sun for mid winter.

Low reorganises Sunday into Monday with a centre developing in Bass Strait. That will send lots of showers into Victoria, with potentially heavy falls in the usual spots.
snowfall
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:16 am

Quite a heavy burst of rain here as well, which started at around 2:30am. 10.2mm in the gauge this morning.
Dane
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:54 pm

5.8mm's overnight for me - 5.6mm's at the Airport. Been dry all day since.
Coldish day my max was 10.1c and the Airport max was 9.6c.
Its now down to 6.9c here in Sebastopol.
StratoBendigo
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:44 pm

All fairly ho-hum here. Just 4mm last night and mostly sunny skies today.

A chilly 5c now and no wind either.
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hillybilly
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:24 am

Few spots yesterday, but as expected spun around most of Vic. Got a couple of nice lumpy Cu during the arvo and could see some impressive cells down in South Gippsland.

The system is reorganising today and showers should pick up during the day. One circulation is passing through southern NSW while the main low will develop in the Tasman Sea with a secondary centre in Bass Strait. Expecting convective conditions today followed by bands of showers and possibly ares of rain tomorrow as a wrap around develops. Could get heavy in southern Vic, particularly East Central and Gippsland though details will matter a lot.
Hawker
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:58 am

6.5 Friday night, another 8.5 last night, getting very wet on the ground now.
Just need a bigger rain to get some good run off.
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