1-7 July - a week of fronts

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Gordon
Supercell
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Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:16 pm

Looking like a prolonged sequence of cold fronts to start July.

No single big one at this stage, but certainly a break from high pressure and stability.
Gordon
Supercell
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Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:17 pm

Latest forecasts suggesting snow to 900 metres on Thursday and Friday, so getting quite cold compared to recent events.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:30 pm

Launceston stats for June Long Term avge in brackets: Avge Max 13.1 (13.2), Avge Min 3.2 (2.9), Rainfall 23.4 mm (67.9mm)
Hobart stats for June Long Term avge in brackets: Avge Max 12.8 (12.0), Avge Min 5.7 (5.2), Rainfall 84.2 mm (53.5mm)
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hillybilly
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Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:26 am

Progs are looking more encouraging as this gets closer. Solid falls in southern and mountain areas, potentially north of 50mm in the usual wet spots. Friday is going to throw up the first really cold airmass for winter (though we had one in May). EC’s latest run has the snow line falling to around 500-600m on Friday arvo with showers. Got to be a chance for flurries here in the Nongs, and Macedon and Trentham etc should be a good chance.

Today will be mild and windy. Some late showers in the west, with the main event tomorrow morning.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:02 pm

Looks like an upgrade on 00z GFS. It's going to be real winter weather to end the week.

Some savage frosts next week too by the looks of it.
Dane
Supercell
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Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
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Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:05 pm

Looking a bit more wintery over the coming days with the BOM going for a top of 7 in Ballarat on Friday.
Not a huge amount of Rain though.
Ballarat had 39.2mm's of Rain in June well below the average of 62mm's.
I Did considerably better here in Sebastopol with 62.9mm's for the month.
Daytime Temps were 0.4c above average for June but Night time temps were 1.3c below average.
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hillybilly
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Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:08 pm

Mild day up here with a breezy max of 11C. Now waiting on the rainband which looks ok. Suspect the ranges will shred it a bit so the south will be hit and miss as you move east. Expecting perhaps 5-10mm here for the first bit.

We did well both in FC and Walkerville in June. Both a touch above average due to a couple of strong topographic events and slow moving cold air cells. Pretty patchy with falls falling away quickly. Walkerville has quite a topographic signal despite being on a range only 100-200m high thanks to being a long coastal range (around 20km) poking into Bass Strait.
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Didjman
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:58 pm

Wind gusting to 53klm /hr here. No rain as yet. Temp 12C.
Derwent
Cumulus
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Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:44 am

Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:39 am

Morning all from Hobart,
After another run of mild sunny days this morning a few showers are falling. Meant to clear this afternoon. Still a lot of very low sitting Highs still killing our Winter down here so far. The synoptic are not encouraging, the Highs sitting bang on Tassie by the weekend. So still waiting for a decent cold high winds clean out.
Derwent
Cumulus
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Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:43 am

Forgot to say 14 degrees in Hobart yesterday . :o
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hillybilly
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Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:43 am

Breezy night with 3.4mm in the gauge. Was expecting a bit more but not to be. Apparently some rumbles about but I slept through them

Today’s a bit of an in-between day ahead of the strongest front in the sequence tomorrow arvo.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:34 am

Rain overnight Tas: Pine Tree Rivulet 45mm, Fisher River 43mm, Deloraine 30mm, Scottsdale 21mm, Cressy 20mm, Launceston 10mm
Gordon
Supercell
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Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:29 am

6mm here to 9am and 6C. Not a bad start.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:54 am

A non-event here so far. Just 1mm.
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:17 pm

3.4mm here overnight. 12c for a max today, and thankfully not as windy as yesterday. Might score a few mms tonight and tomorrow, but I’m not expecting a whole lot. Could be quite cold though - we’re forecast for 8c.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:40 am

Woken to my WZ alert telling me 10 to 20mm
Shocked to see it double
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hillybilly
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Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:51 am

0.6mm overnight. Nice front for today. System off Mt Gambier is waving and standing up. Hits central Vic mid afternoon. Burst of heavy rain. Snow line drops to about 800m for a period. Will slide under the Wimmera/Mallee but rest of the state should get a decent drop. Then makes for a cold wet weekend.
Skywalker
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Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:57 am

We are down on the island for the next 4 days, absolutely pouring down here. Going to be a wet few hours. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:16 pm

Classic mid-winter's day. Hasn't got above 10c and we currently have a mix of rain and small hail...

Love it!

And temp dropped to 6c and 5mm so far today since 9am.
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hillybilly
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Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:48 pm

Quite the winters day in the Dandenongs. 11mm of rain so far, and temperature now down to 3.0C. Would put the current snow level around 650m ATM.

Might be a chance for a bit of sleet here if the showers turn heavier again.
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