Cut-off Low transiting SE Aus 10-13 July

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Didjman
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Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:35 am

Models are slowly converging on this scenario for the Weekend. The low is currently forecast to cross Vic/Tas with some models suggesting an ECL might form afterwards.
Tassiedave
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Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:42 am

Looks like a tough one to predict - models oscillating between 0-5 mm and 50 mm in successive runs.
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hillybilly
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Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:22 am

Looks the focus is drifting north in the progs. Surface low stalls near the SA/Vic border while the upper trough amplifies into Queensland and then a deep low forms in the Tasman Sea. Progs have been jumpy and details will matter a lot, and are uncertain. Could see 2 or 50mm in the Nongs.
stevco123
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Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:02 pm

Midday, and still a healthy fog hanging over me. Only around 7 degrees still.
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StratoBendigo
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Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:00 pm

Freezing in Nthn Vic atm. 7c here and just 6c at Mildura. Inversion in full swing.
StratoBendigo
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Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:00 pm

Freezing in Nthn Vic atm. 7c here and just 6c at Mildura. Inversion in full swing.
Tassiedave
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Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:16 pm

Records could fall! Mildura currently 6.4 degrees and Swan Hill 5.0 degrees. Records are Mildura (7.9) and Swan Hill (7.0)
stevco123
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Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:54 pm

Very interesting tempa around the state today. Mildura and swan hill making it to 7.6 amd 7.0 respectively, whilst Walpeup only got to 6.6.

Currently 13.0 in the city and northern suburbs, but 7s and 8s down here already
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hillybilly
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Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:25 am

Systems starting to look quite significant. The initial low stalls over Victoria and weakens then a strong upper trough amplifies into NSW and a major east coast low develops off the NSW coast. It looks like being a major rain producer with potential for big waves, storm surges and gales or worse on the east coast.

Victoria won’t be quite as extreme, but looks like reasonable rainfall (though patchy). Could be locally quite heavy about the ranges and Gippsland. We may get a wrap around from the Tasman Sea, though details will matter a lot as is usual.

Unfortunately is a a very mild system. Snow levels start out close to 2000m, and wiggle but don’t get very low. Perhaps dropping to about 1500m, give or take. A wrap around will be warm if it happens.
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hillybilly
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Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:38 am

Should start to see showers and perhaps even the odd rumble move into Vic today. More extensive tomorrow. Progs are jumpy and divergent, so pretty uncertain. Incoming low stalls, upper trough amplifies and deep low forms on the east coast. Details will matter a lot.
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hillybilly
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Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:07 pm

Some showers and storms firing now. Might scrape the northern and eastern burbs if they keep on the same trajectory.

Progs tending to up totals. EC now has near 40mm for parts of central and solid falls out east. Big split, though, with models showing big differences so not confident.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:14 am

Been just perfect @Mansfield, would have been happy with a storm but nothing so far
StratoBendigo
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:13 am

We managed to get under a dumper last night. 14mm in gauge.
flyfisher
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:46 am

There are going to be hits and misses. Dandenongs looking quite likely to be a miss going by the radar. At least at this stage.
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Didjman
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:06 am

8.6mm and counting here
drewgon
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:08 am

30mm here in Nagambie since Midnight...!

Pretty unexpected more than forecast!
Gordon
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:52 am

Quite fascinating watching this one unfold in real time. It's a long time since I've seen the models struggle so much with the detail.

It must be a bit like forecasting in the olden days right now - watch the sky and see what happens :). (Only a mm or so to report from here so far, but it does 'feel ' quite ominous.)
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Didjman
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:16 pm

We finished on 10.4mm for the moment. Not bad as everything seems to go around us atm.
Hawker
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:01 pm

9 mm here, better than drizzle all day like last week.
Toss up for more or not
wobbie
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Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:27 pm

Models look to be wiggling it northward and out to sea? Which means no dumping in East Gippsland unfortunately
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