Trough and east coast low to our north: July 25-29

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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hillybilly
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Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:43 am

Big system developing to our north as the trough in the bight moves northeast and leads to a strong multicentre low in the Tasman Sea. For Vic, looks less than great but might provide a bit of interest. The upper trough moving across on the weekend will see convection and could well be some heavy showers and even rumbles through the Mallee and Wimmera. Might sneak into northern parts of central. Later, showers spread west into Gippsland and perhaps central as the low deepens and moves south. Finally, the low moves into the westerlies and we get a front of sorts.

This one will be very damaging for east coast beaches, and wet on the coast, but for us a case of what manages to sneak into Vic. Thinking 5-10mm a chance in the Dandenongs, but might get less or more. Most will get only sprinkles, and the weekend looks quite nice for the time of year.

The system isn’t going to be a snow producer (perhaps dusting) so the awful Victorian snow season continues (though we can’t go up anyway :( ).
StratoBendigo
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Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:18 am

Doesn't look like anything here. In fact I can't see anything for the next two weeks. Ground is getting dry.

A really savage frost this morning. -3 degC.

BOM are still predicting a very wet mid-August to November still...
Hawker
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Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:10 pm

Yes Strato frost here as well.
The oceans say go for it, but the synoptics don't want to party.
Going to be a dramatic change if it happens.
flyfisher
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Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:23 pm

Sorry if off topic. One trigger for change might be the increasing solar input on the Australian continent - it's already getting lighter in the mornings.
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hillybilly
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Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:25 am

Quite a few sparks showing up in the Mallee into the Wimmera atm. Splitting the gauges, but some of the cells looks quite strong. Shame this is headed for NSW :(
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Didjman
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Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:46 am

Radar loop shows it tracking SE. We had a red dawn here and the currawongs were wolf whistling. Fingers crossed ;)
Derwent
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Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:06 am

Hi from Hobart, another Spring morning here. Going for 12c already 9c , looks closer to 15 c day to me.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:55 pm

That tiny piece of white,
Well it's actually going to wash the dust off my car
Or turn it to mud..
woken to a unfamiliar noise of rain..
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hillybilly
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Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:17 am

Derwent wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:06 am
Hi from Hobart, another Spring morning here. Going for 12c already 9c , looks closer to 15 c day to me.
Been feeling the same in the Nongs the last couple of days. Will be a false start, but later next week looks unusually mild for July. Could well see 20s on the flats, though might not make it into the south.

The low is really starting to crank to our north. This is going to produce huge falls on the central to south coast of NSW. EC has spot falls approaching 300mm. Given the topographic enhancement which will see some spots go higher and lower, gotta be a chance for falls locally well north of that :?

This is a very mild system for mid winter, so lots of rain on the ranges. Depending on the trajectory of the bands could be nasty for the Snowy resorts (Vic is currently running about the worst season on record for late July so has barely any snow anyway :( ). Could see a lot of snow washed away.

Vic will see rain spreading west today. Expecting substantial falls in Gippsland to develop. Otways to pick up a bit as will the ranges ranges west of Melbourne. Rest of us will get what manages to sneaks west. Thinking perhaps 2-5mm here. We need 25mm to our average, so looks like we will miss out by about 200km :(
StratoBendigo
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Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:58 am

The lack of rain is a real concern atm. Even worse in WA agricultural regions which in some areas is the worst in a century.

Some hope of snow on the Alps from August 2 onwards. Looks cold at least.
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hillybilly
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Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:57 pm

Wierd day in the Nongs with fog rolling in and out, but not that cold despite the gloom. Here’s a photo from earlier. Some amazing light at times.

The low is deepening and pushing south. Should see moderate to heavy falls develop in the eastern third of the state. Some showers further west, but not expecting a lot. Be nice to be surprised, as we need another fall to get to our average.

Image
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Didjman
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Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:22 pm

WOW at pic HB! Beautiful!
QldTwister
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Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:44 pm

Yeah things are getting bad in northern and western Vic and much of SA and far Western NSW with no widespread soaking rain since May

The lack of any solid fronts is just amazing nothing at all, just huge highs, cut offs and weak fronts or clippers and next week or so no real change to that. :( :(
Lack of wind ok but do miss the howling Nlys ahead of a rain band

June and July are going to be Very Dry in SA and much of Western and Northern Vic mostly NW Vic
East NSW doing very well great system, pretty much 80-150mm from Brissy to VIC Border

The winter of no fronts hopefully not
Hopefully Aug and Sept big fronts return before we go into 6 months of Elys and lots of rain and thunderstorms :D :D
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:41 am

Got into a wrap around band on the low overnight. EC picked this, but looks to be rather better than expected and Progs have bumped totals up for east central. On 3mm so far and thick fog and heavy drizzly rain. Radar looks good - the echos are not strong but this is all low level warm drizzly precip so doesn’t get picked up well by the radar. Could well get 10-20mm at this rate.

A second area of drizzle should develop west of Melbourne today, while heavy rain falls in Gippsland. Not a conventional mid July system. Uppers are really mild with this so a rain to the top of the alps type of system.

Lots of rain in NSW. Waves will start to build today, so could be some issues with coastal properties.
Blackie
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:36 am

Didjman wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:22 pm
WOW at pic HB! Beautiful!
Sure is a beautiful shot.

Drying 40-50km SE winds here in Mansfield presently from the ECL. Things are drying out here for the first time since March. Lake Eildon's filling rate has slowed and if we don't see rain in the next two weeks will start to reverse - something almost unheard of at this time of year. Lake is currently at about 51%.

Hoping the tap's back on in August!
StratoBendigo
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:23 pm

Blackie wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:36 am
Didjman wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:22 pm
WOW at pic HB! Beautiful!
Sure is a beautiful shot.

Drying 40-50km SE winds here in Mansfield presently from the ECL. Things are drying out here for the first time since March. Lake Eildon's filling rate has slowed and if we don't see rain in the next two weeks will start to reverse - something almost unheard of at this time of year. Lake is currently at about 51%.

Hoping the tap's back on in August!
Same here. Sea Surface temps on the Indian Ocean are starting to look encouraging though. And MJO pulse in the sweet spot is looking good for Mid-August too. Patience is required. AAO is trending the wrong way again, but that might end up helping us with an incursion of tropical moisture from the NW.
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hillybilly
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:26 pm

Jeepers it is a horrible day in the Dandenongs. 7C, southerly blowing solidly and thick drizzle which is coming in sideways. Kinda fitting for those in Melbourne ATM dealing with this awful plague :(

Still need 18mm to get to our monthly average here. Could almost imagine getting that if we get a bit lucky with this wrap around. NSW and east Gippsland looks wild.

Will be lots of nervous home owners in coastal location the next 36 hours. For every cm the sea rises you expect to lose a metre of coastline, so the storms surges/large waves have so much more potential to cause damage with each year that goes by.
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hillybilly
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:24 pm

Picked up 7mm this arvo. Gone back to spitty fog. Need another repeat and a bit to get to average. Few spots just east of here have scored nearly 20mm since this started to local decent falls (we’ve had 11mm so far). Big falls out east and on the NSW coast. Social media showing lots of beaches in trouble, and still a couple of big tides with large waves to come.
wobbie
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Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:51 am

Nice to see some ECL leaking into East Gippsland. Also, Mt Baw Baw passing 50mm, really? Mt Dandenong had a similar effect today, to a lesser degree, a mm or two at the base
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:44 am

Woke to ~ 12 C Monday Morning. Tuesday similar,
Mild day Monday,
Although Wind Chime had to be tied up this AM.
Ive noticed the Lake has dropped, the black line on the old grey trees could show more than 100mm - I wasnt getting wet feet to measure..
its mild enough even to pull out a paint brush for Maintenance here..oddd I thought..
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