Yet yet another slow moving low pressure system 24-27/11/21

[Petros]

HB pointed this out this morning. At this stage this one looks to focus more on the E side of Vic, but time will tell:



GFS is most bullish for rain totals, other models tend to keep the system more near SE NSW, but I selected it because I think it's going to be the closest to what actually evolves.

[StratoBendigo]

Definitely an Eastern Vic event in the main. We might be right on the edge of nothing or a lot.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Saturday my Ants were moving eggs…

[StratoBendigo]

There seems to be two main rainbands incoming. An initial one on Tuesday night, and then another one Thursday.

Also keep an eye on Nov 30th for yet another system... EC likes it, GFS less so.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

now its Black Cockies Screeching.. I think its going to rain..

[StratoBendigo]

GFS is off-its-tree this evening. 200mm in Kerang? Nah, ridiculous as usual.

I'm thinking 20-40mm possible here.

[Tassiedave]

Sorry for looking further ahead but does it look fairly hot next Tuesday to Thursday?

[StratoBendigo]

Sorry for looking further ahead but does it look fairly hot next Tuesday to Thursday?

Yes. Right on cue with the start of Summer.

As for this week - 25mm seems more-or-less locked in here.

[drewgon]

Sorry for looking further ahead but does it look fairly hot next Tuesday to Thursday?

Yes. Right on cue with the start of Summer.

As for this week - 25mm seems more-or-less locked in here.

The models still cant agree exactly on the western side for you and I!

I think its going to be a wait and see what we end up with

[StratoBendigo]

Sorry for looking further ahead but does it look fairly hot next Tuesday to Thursday?

Yes. Right on cue with the start of Summer.

As for this week - 25mm seems more-or-less locked in here.

The models still cant agree exactly on the western side for you and I!

I think its going to be a wait and see what we end up with

True. Although it's slowly narrowing down to 15-40mm...

[Petros]

Latest CMC has reduced the heavier totals, and provided rain over a larger area of Vic:

[StratoBendigo]

GFS and ICON 00Z model outputs are incredibly different for the next 4 days. i.e. 15mm or 60mm here. Who knows?

[Wilko]

GFS and ICON 00Z model outputs are incredibly different for the next 4 days. i.e. 15mm or 60mm here. Who knows?

I have absolutely no confidence in the models with recent systems
Could be anywhere from 10mm to 30mm with this system
On a positive note there is bucket loads of moisture

[StratoBendigo]

Round 1 has so far delivered nothing here. The Wimmera and Western District got a bit today.

Still no idea what will happen for the rest of the week.

[hillybilly]

1mm here overnight. Looks thundery but in the end all highest based fairly light showers.

Another day with potential today, mainly focussed in the north and east. Melbourne is on the edge.

Crazy gradients across the progs for this system with EC showing falls in central from less than 5mm around Geelong to around 100mm in the Upper Yarra.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

think Ill be safe putting washing on the line..

[Gordon]

A surprise 4.5mm here.

I'll join the 'who knows?' chorus for the rest of the week. After last week and the models' disintegrating this week...

[Chritc]

The ants believe it's going to rain pretty good.

[StratoBendigo]

A lottery here. I'm leaning towards the lower end of the scale (i.e. 10-20mm).

[stevco123]

Smells like a nothing day, but yet it reaks on storms galore.

50/50 for sure today