Heaps of November records falling with this event across southern NSW then onto the south coast. Expect a few spots in the area near Eden have all ready gone over 400mm. Will wait to see when the obs come in at 9am. Would not be surprised to see the NSW November record fall with this. Just crazy.
For those wondering the SSTs explains a fair bit. Values off the NSW coast are locally over 6C above the recent average, which would put them about 8C above values back in the 1950s. Thats is bonkers. Peak rainfall intensity increases around 15% per degree of SST so that about doubles the peak rainfall rates that you can get compared to the same set up in the past.
Down here heavy showers but been going over the same spots. 20-25mm in the western and inner southern burbs of Hobart, but not much anywhere else.
For the mainland, system consolidates today near the south coast of NSW. Will absolutely pour. Surprised that the media aren’t really talking about this system. Strikes me as potentially very nasty for the worst affected regions. Not so convinced about Melbourne. Looks pretty strongly rainshadowed, with Gippsland and west central to be much wetter..