The Australian Weather Forum

Quick follow up system which will finally deliver for Tasmania as well as Victoria. Have felt like a spectator down here the last three weeks. Low deepens in the easterlies on the weekend, before slowly moving to sit just east of Tasmania around Tuesday. Rain and storms spread across Victoria on the weekend, reaching Tasmania late Sunday and Monday. Looks like general good falls, which may be heavy dependent on the track of the low. The models have been a bit jumpy on details so hard to pin point the likely peaks, but would think this looks like a north central and central ranges Victoria, and eastern Tasmania special. Hopefully this one fills in some of the gaps in recent rainfall.

hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:43 am Hopefully this one fills in some of the gaps in recent rainfall.

Still looking good this morning. WATL has virtually the entire state down for 25mm plus, which is something I've rarely seen.

Fingers crossed for southern Tassie - about due for a win

The reforming easterly dip scenario appears to deliver again:



Its going to be a wet 2024 (and probably a decade or two onwards, going by the solar trends).

Solid upgrade by BOM with 10-40 mm on Monday
Easterly dip looks like continuing with Positive SAM plus Ultra warming Oceans (Tasman)
Uncharted territory imho

Progs jumping a lot for down here so not too confident. Will get something but could be a pretty useless 5mm or a very welcome 50mm. Starting to develop a flash drought down here which isn’t good heading into the hottest part of summer.

It looks like another VIC special, particularly for northern areas and the ranges. More heavy falls adding to a remarkable run of direct hits on the area. I can’t recall anything like the recent sequence outside of a La Niña so most odd.

Still looks good for 30-60mm here, although the 18Z German model goes for 100mm...

It feels like this summer is more typical of what Sydney experiences, not Bendigo.

Plenty of water vapour pouring down from the NW, with most models in agreement of handy rainfall/storms to arrive over Vic Sunday evening through Monday:

Yes, progs are sticking fairly well now for Vic but somewhat jumpier for Tas, except maybe the far northeast. Perhaps a couple more runs will clear the picture as the movement of the low becomes more predictable.

At this stage, it looks like all of Vic will see rain. We'll have a northerly kicking in here so I'm expecting some degree of rain shadowing, although it should still be fairly wet overall. Should be plenty of heavy falls elsewhere, especially in northern parts, as HB mentions.

So far, this summer has felt like a La Nina, with generally cooler temps and high moisture levels. The humidity these past few days has been really marked, almost subtropical. Probably not surprising given that the waters all around Australia are very warm, despite the El Nino and positive IOD. So there's plenty of moisture feeding into the country, especially from the east with the positive SAM.

livestream now of the weather expected over the next 2 days.

The last time BoM had a conference advising of 200mm falls, it failed spectacularly. People were told to go home early from work, change plans etc. In the end, something like 5mm fell.

At least they're abandoning their el nino narrative. Should've listened to other amateur meteorologists who declared a very wet period from November 2023 and all through 2024.

stevco123 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:21 pm The last time BoM had a conference advising of 200mm falls, it failed spectacularly. People were told to go home early from work, change plans etc. In the end, something like 5mm fell.

At least they're abandoning their el nino narrative. Should've listened to other amateur meteorologists who declared a very wet period from November 2023 and all through 2024.

El Nino narrative? It's clearly there, albeit weakening: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC062 ... maly.shtml

It's not their fault its effects are abnormal/contrary to expectation.

Re. the rainfall, it's fraught. The problem is whenever we have these major systems, the focus jumps around in the models, and looks to be locking in until jumping to the usual spot on the day; that is, NE Vic, SE NSW (where all these systems are obsessed with honing).

EC has been toying with Melbourne. Around 25-30mm seems likely, however 100mm is entirely possible given the available moisture and the potential breadth of this system. I tend to err on the conservative side, as we've seen Melbourne in the firing zone multiple times only for the hills to stop everything like a forcefield of Himalayan proportions, but who knows.

The conference was scheduled for 2.30pm.
Then at 2.30 changed to 2.45
They couldn’t even get a notification out so ppl didn’t have to hunt for it online..
laughable.

Big day ahead. For tas hoping we can get some relief from the flash drought. Expecting some good falls, but progs pretty jumpy. Should see 15 to 30mm here, but full range across the models goes from about 10mm to about 50mm. We have one dying low to our northwest and a developing low to our northeast so messy set up.

Simpler set up for Victoria. The main low consolidates in a centre in Bass Strait the next 12-24 hours with rain and storms. The precipitable water values are exceptional, and will produce heavy rainfall rates when things align. Most of VIC has values round 45mm for precipitable water which isn’t a record, but it’s definitely up there.

I’m less convinced about storms for southern VIC.The sounding scream murk and rain, so will be embed at best. Northern Victoria and southern NSW will have clearer air where things will get nasty. Of course, a severe storm might only produce one spark so storms will no doubt meet severe category because of rainfall.

I'm seeing things being wound back. Looks more like a stock-standard 20 odd mm today.

First band approaching now. Looks damp rather than stormy.

Models looking better for us this morning than yesterday. Maybe not extreme totals, but something like 20-40mm over today and tomorrow, which would be a great top up.

Not sure I'd want the intense rainfall rates forecast for the north in the warning.

Sean wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:32 pm

stevco123 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:21 pm The last time BoM had a conference advising of 200mm falls, it failed spectacularly. People were told to go home early from work, change plans etc. In the end, something like 5mm fell.

At least they're abandoning their el nino narrative. Should've listened to other amateur meteorologists who declared a very wet period from November 2023 and all through 2024.

El Nino narrative? It's clearly there, albeit weakening: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC062 ... maly.shtml

It's not their fault its effects are abnormal/contrary to expectation.

Re. the rainfall, it's fraught. The problem is whenever we have these major systems, the focus jumps around in the models, and looks to be locking in until jumping to the usual spot on the day; that is, NE Vic, SE NSW (where all these systems are obsessed with honing).

EC has been toying with Melbourne. Around 25-30mm seems likely, however 100mm is entirely possible given the available moisture and the potential breadth of this system. I tend to err on the conservative side, as we've seen Melbourne in the firing zone multiple times only for the hills to stop everything like a forcefield of Himalayan proportions, but who knows.

There were quite a few amateur meteorologists screaming of a wet summer well before last spring. Especially forecast from November 2023 onwards. This is why i tend to follow them. They have been far more accurate than BoM long term. The general trend is a wet period until 2032 and then a major drought will follow.

Today and tomorrow look a bit "meh". But should get 20mm easily, keeping the fire season away.

Been rain shadowed this morning however thickening up nicely now with steady rain now falling in quiet Highett
Radar looking promising
Not game to predict this one
Could be 20mm or a lot higher

32mm so far in Nagambie which far exceeds any of the forecast numbers for this early in the event

Absolutely pouring down at Mt Macedon all day despite being on the edge of the blob.
Haven't waded out to the gauge yet.

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