Long lived trough with possible showers: Feb 7-

[hillybilly]

Messy sequence coming up with a long lived east coast low, putting the southeast in and easterly flow which slowly become more northerly over time. Lots of showers for eastern Victoria, the Otways, and northern Tasmania. Should spread to west central and eastern Tasmania though more sparse. Initially quite cool, but by mid week could be very hot again.

Eventually a westerly trough will move up and break down the sequence, but probably not till about Friday.

Up north the monsoon is going strong. More heavy falls in Queensland and multiple TC likely.

[stevco123]

Low cloud, fog and heavy drizzle this morning here in Cranbourne, and what feels like 300% humidity

[StratoBendigo]

Finally had a cooler breeze blow through from the Southeast around 7pm this evening.

Another warm week ahead but promising signs of a strong cold front with rain and autumnal temps in 7 days time.

[hillybilly]

Good to see some rain for east Gippsland yesterday and dribbles elsewhere. Wet 36 hours coming up for much of Victoria with southeast exposure. Be good falls in Gippsland, Otways and probably parts of west Central. TAS a bit on the edge but thinking northeast corner and northern tiers.

Progs hinting at a general pattern shift coming up with a shower front mid week and much cooler air towards the weekend. Guess we’ll see if it sticks.

[QldTwister]

Cool, cloudly, smokey, hazey, deary, weather today, but sun isnt far away to the W and N

Ely weather week coming up then going Nly mid week cloud showers and storms next dew days hit and miss and humid and mostly in E and SE Vic

Another burst of heat mid week, yay but looking like the last for awhile sad for me but know many others be happy about that.

No real soaking rain anytime soon for western or central Vic and mid week front not linking up with TC and tropical moisture staying up north not coming south though looking wet across esatern and SE Vic lots showers rain and stroms there this week in humid weather. Eastern NSW looking very wet through the next week or so

2m of rain has fallen in northern parts of Qld with major flooding a big event up there.

[QldTwister]

SEly winds howling out there gusting 50-70km/h through the metro and close to 80km/h over the bay windy night ahead and prob tomorrow too feels a bit Qld like

[Tassiedave]

Adelaide has recorded just 0.6 mm of rain in the last 33 days.

[Wilko]

Easterly filth tonight around 70 - 80 gusts
Could be some tree carnage fr sure

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Storm just east of here, lights and sounds.
Decent wind gusts…

[Didjman]

Looking at the Sat Loop and the Gridpoint wind charts (BoM Aviation section) - some impressive horizontal & vertical wind shear across Vic atm! A possible funnel or twister setup if any storms get going?

[hillybilly]

Storm just east of here, lights and sounds.
Decent wind gusts…

Big falls under those storms. Multiple 30-60mm totals showing up on wunderground. Very impressive. Shame it missed other parts of Melbourne. Messy system playing out with Gippsland, bordering central, west central slopes, Otways and northwest TAS doing ok. Other areas missing out.

Had 1mm here so far so nice to know it can rain, but barely a dust settler. This easterly set up sticks for another few days.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Heard reports - Heyfield direction rained all day, also Maltese sized hail…
Seems they’ve had 40+ mm last few days.

Thankfully no rain in the gully, digging holes water would make holes very messy..

[Petros]

33mm for Maffra so far. The end of 24/25 summer fire danger for Nth Central Gippsland.

[Lighthouse]

Bizarre setup for the Otways, most parts have received very little or nothing but a 20km area behind Lorne has had more than 26mm in drizzle. Very localised and nothing on the actual coast including Aireys inlet which has, yet again, failed to score. Can’t see anything changing today unless thunderstorms pop up somewhere.

[Gordon]

Bizarre setup for the Otways, most parts have received very little or nothing but a 20km area behind Lorne has had more than 26mm in drizzle.

Have seen this setup quite a few times for the Otways proper over the many decades when we or family lived nearby: alignment of the south-easterly stream perfectly captured by the main ridge. One reason that ridge has (normally!) such high rainfall - it benefits from systems like this as well as more typical cold fronts.

At least it should reduce fire risk for the Otways proper - for a while there, I was starting to worry about a repeat of Ash Wednesday...

PS: 2 day totals adding up nicely; as at midday, Mt Sabine 39mm, Mt Cowley 28mm, Benwerrin 24mm.

[Lighthouse]

Thanks for the explanation Gordon. Benwerrin also received about 35mm in a thunderstorm this week so hopefully lessens the fire risk for a while.

[Lucia]

No warnings on BOM about those cells heading towards Yan Yean

[Ryant1234]

Maximum Pea size hail in Epping. Haven't seen hail in years. No thunder for a while now

Wonder if it will get stronger as it moves on

[weathergasm]

I can’t make sense of the synoptic situation. The STW talks about an upper trough, but where is that located? And where is it moving?

And that thunderstorm northeast of Melbourne appears to have split in half, with the stronger northern half moving north east and the weaker southern half moving south west. Very weird.

Also this constant, strong SE wind is bloody annoying, it’s blown a few panels off my greenhouse which will be a pain to put back in

[James]

cant seem to make its mind up which direction its going, was heading this way but now has gone more towards the city