Hot and windy ahead of a strong front: Feb 12-

[hillybilly]

Couple of hot and windy ones ahead of a strong front thursday PM then much colder air for the weekend. Some showers and storms on the front, mostly impacting the eastern half of Victoria and western Tasmania then lots of westerly and southwesterly showers for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Expecting local small hail and thunder with coldies on the weekend in coastal parts, with heavy snow on the mountains down here in Tasmania, and lighter falls for the peaks in southern Victoria. The grounds obviously warm so what falls won’t stick for long.

Then have a few days of cooler weather

[StratoBendigo]

No rain expected here though. Lawns are turning to bare dirt.

[Gordon]

Any prospect of TC Zelia boosting rainfall with the upcoming cold front and trough?

Cloud link-up looks ideal on the latest sat pic, but the models aren't showing any real benefit - not for western Vic anyway .

[StratoBendigo]

Only 1mm predicted for here. All being evaporated by the 49c heat over the SA outback...

[WeatherViewer]

So so so humid and sticky outside tonight! Anyone else feeling it?

[hillybilly]

Exceptional humidity down here today. Our nearest station at Dennes Point touched 18.7C and the Hobart Ap AWS touched 19.7C. We live on shallow bay with locally warmer SSTs and it peaked at 19.9C. All those numbers are at February records give or take. Maria and Tasman Island also touch and go for records. Thankfully the humid Tasman Sea air kept temps down a touch with a max of 29.9C here. Top in Tas of 33C and 41C in the Mallee in Victoria.

Unfortunately a historic day in South Australia with lots of record falling including the state February record with 48.7C at Oodnadatta. That’s 0.5C above the previous hottest. Lots of stations broke records across the state. With record drought I’m hearing reports of severe damage to vegetation

Fortunately front inbound for tomorrow. Rain prospects look ok for the usual suspects, but not much for northern Victoria and will be lighter in the west. Chance of some rumbles near the change.

Nice cold (for February) weekend coming up

[Adam38]

TC Zelia has really ramped up! Expected to cross near Pt Headland as a Cat 5, slow moving too

[Gordon]

TC Zelia has really ramped up! Expected to cross near Pt Headland as a Cat 5, slow moving too

Possibility of 290km/h winds! Hard to imagine.

Meanwhile, a much more benign morning here than I was expecting - 23C right now and almost full cloud, humidity 53%. (DP 14C) Wind is strong when it gusts though.

[weathergasm]

There was a pretty pronounced jump in temperature from 3am to 4am where I am (Berwick) - went from 20°C to 25°C according to my little weather station. I’m guessing the wind shifted a bit, but still interesting to see.

[Gordon]

Max here today at this stage is 26.5C (now) and satellite pic says that's it for sun (not that we've seen more than a flicker today). So far, so good.

That cyclone cloud streaming down looks just like a classic north-west cloud-band of the sort that's gone missing for much of the last year. One of our best rain producers here, although the radar suggests it's a case of, "Tell him he's dreamin.'"

[Lucia]

So disappointing, not even a ml.

[Gordon]

Hmmm. A bit underwhelming so far, even in places like Melbourne's east where the rain forecast was promising.

About half a mm here.

[hillybilly]

33C with high humidity. Absolute stinker for southern TAS. Showers pretty sparse with the change and tbh not expecting any here, but maybe I’ll be surprised. Some ok falls on the northern tiers of Tasmania, but unfortunately missed the west coast fires so far Some heavy showers on the Overland which should shut that fire down.

Next system stands up and forms a little low, and looks a good deal wetter, though not great for Victoria.

[Pengaz]

It’s completely forgotten how to rain here, everything is slipping past us, or in the case of last weekend, not quite making it this far west. Turning into an unusually dry stretch. The countryside is so brown.

[Lighthouse]

No idea how Zeehan, on Tassie’s West Coast, which averages more than 2300mm a year in rainfall, can be under threat from fires.

[StratoBendigo]

A lot of summer of easterlies will do that.

Anyway, BOM going for a max of 19c here tomorrow. Cold for mid-Feb.

[hillybilly]

No idea how Zeehan, on Tassie’s West Coast, which averages more than 2300mm a year in rainfall, can be under threat from fires.

It’s pretty bad Apparently there was a similar fire back in 1981 so can happen in the coastal heath down there. Looks like faily limited impact in the big forests and rain forests and heavier rain there now so basically dodged a bullet. Just by chance the cells mostly missed the alpine parts and the far southwest. 50km south and it would have been really serious environmentally.

Turned really convective here this arvo. Some thumping showers but really hit and miss. Totals across metro a Hobart range from more than 20mm to 0mm. Had 4mm at our place so far. Was hail in some of the showers, but only pea size. Looking forward to a cold, wet, snowy, thundery day tomorrow Need all the rain we can get after a hot and dry few weeks.

Good to see some showers in central. Odd they are stayin away from the bay which is about the opposite of what you’d expect.

[StratoBendigo]

0mm here as expected.

[hillybilly]

7mm here this morning. Now waiting on the front and deep southerly which sits on a line from about Cape Otway Victoria to Southwest Cape Tasmania. Lots of stream showers, small hail, and thunder in the cold air, more so for Tasmania but also coastal Victoria. Snow down here to about 800m.

Expect the southerly in this will favour areas with more southerly exposure. Expecting locally heavy falls around southwest and northwest TAS. VIC, probably favour the Yarra Valley and Gippsland.

[Pengaz]

The rain gods have responded to my whinge on Thursday night.~ 7.5mm (and a dead bee) in the gauge so far, most of it from a heavy shower that went through in the past half hour

Looks like a bit more to come too