Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[johnno]

Thats if the surface trough and low don't stay to far East Jake (north of us) at the moment the 4 day BOm rainfall map has no rainfall for the West of the state Sat to Tues next week its a messy situation at the moment and hopefully things do change more in our favour that goes with this Thursdays system as well.

[Blackee]

I think Thursday is still looking good for 15mm+ falls. EC has wildly flucuated the rainfall totals, but I expect an upgrade in this evening' run.

Looking longer term, it appears that another cyclone or strong rain event occurring around the same part of WA later in the run.

[Jake Smethurst]

Yeah John. At least I think a couple of days next week from Sunday look a bit unsettled looking at the latest progs.

[Blackee]

GFS expecting Laurence to track mainly east from Giles, going off Accum. precip map.
Chance of some isolated storms, mainly in the far west tomorrow. Can't see much storm activity locally unless Laurence tracks more SE or SSE rather than predominately East.

Confused? I am!! :lol:

[norfolk]

From about Jan 7th, another cyclone will begin to form off the NW coast of WA. This one will be called Magda. It will stay offshore and by the 11th will be just off the coast off Broome. Now while anything could happen with this, at this stage I see it crossing the coast further south than what Laurence did. It may decide to effect us!

[Karl Lijnders]

Keep an eye on the southward progression of moisture as we go into NE winds over the coming days. Should see storms develop over the northern half of the state Wednesday and move south throughout Thursday and become rather scattered. May also see it finish with a thundery outbreak with a band of rainfall with useful falls come the weekend.

EC has up to 50mm in Melbourne and 100mm along the divide.

[Karl Lijnders]

Latest EC suggesting three events in the next 9-10 days with plenty of tropical moisture being advected SE ahead of frontal weather.

First event being covered in VIC BW should drop 10-30mm across a large portion of the state with locally heavy falls.

Then another burst with a surface trough and front combining by mid next week with showers and thunderstorms and some moderate risk of a rainband with the front.

Lastly a strong LWT looks likely to effect the region about 9 days from now, in what capacity and with how much moisture is uncertain, but this has been shown by EC in the last 3 runs so there is growing merit with this to produce further useful rainfall.

[Karl Lijnders]

Wondeful event across the state.

Now we turn our eyes to the developing heat inland interacting with the monsoonal trough. This monsoonal trough is very active. US plunges moisture south through the red centre. This could mean some thundery weather in about 7 days time through the inland of VIC and maybe a small chance of a rain event.

After the 100-200mm falls through C and NE VIC, it will be very handy.

[Karl Lijnders]

Keep a close eye on a developing pressure trough and storm outbreak starting in the north Thursday then extending statewide from Friday.

Could be a good drop in this easterly dip.

[adon]

Obviously next week Karl????

[johnno]

EC is drugged up tonight for the end of the sequence... Looks like a Feb 05 all over again

[Karl Lijnders]

Yeah John it does looks amazing. I think we need to keep an eye on colder air moving in Wednesday/Thursday as we go into SSW winds behind the rain and storm band Tuesday. Should hang around as the humid NE flow sets up by late next week. Should see a dynamic atmosphere to support showers and thunderstorms over a wide area for numerous days.

Wait and see but looking good in the interim for about 10-20mm across a large part of the state Tues/Wed.

[Anthony Violi]

I think we are going to embark on some weather soon that will shift everyones thinking on how the climate works..if we get the cold air that i have been talking about for some time we could see some enormous events coming up. Add to this, if we see record cold here through the winter, which chances are we wont but not out of the question, we could have a huge 2010. I fully expect we will, just need the planets to align and we will break all time records this year, you heard it here first.

[droughtbreaker]

I definitely reckon at this very early stage that we will have a cold and wet winter this year with a return to widespread and major low level snow events of the type that were common through the 80s and 90s. This is assuming that this pattern we are having now of stronger upper troughs accompanying surface troughs and cold fronts continues. Even with global warming this is more than possible as the oceans to our south are still very cold in winter and all we need is stronger dynamics to drag more of that cold air up here. Last winter we had no dynamics at all, simple as that.

Anyway, back in the present and (near future), EC has significant snow on the alps with that crazy LSD scenario it has in around a week and a half. That almost certainly won't come off but what may come off is something similar but on a lesser scale. With all the heat and humidity building up yet again it is becoming a familiar pattern. Every time we have had a buildup of heat and humidity since November it has ended with a bang.

[Karl Lijnders]

I guess the trend it is going for is for cold air to penetrate the region and cause some significant rainfalls over the SE region of Australia.

I agree Andrew, potential is there for some normaility as El Nino dies and we see normal ocean patterns, regular stand up cold fronts and colder air moving into Autumn. If this is what we get in summer when it is supposed to be our hottest seasons on record then I say bring it on.

[johnno]

Latest EC holding for a week or so time something to keep an eye on I guess Loving the look of the Upper Cold low and surface patterns but still a long way out. If this event came off this would be extraordinary for January.

[johnno]

Fair Inkum its a Feb 05 all over again.. Look at EC's Uppers Sunday, Monday and Tuesday Geesss.. We allow to dream?

[Anthony Violi]

If you look at my previous posts you will see that i said we are going to have some weather soon thats going to open everyones eyes..the air since the November heatwave, for whatever reason, is still originating from a long long way south and continues to do so. I can only dream of what of what we may receive through the autumn and winter. I think we will be very close to re writing some records of the cold type, and the rainfall type. Soon enough the planets will align and make feb 1 2005 look positively mild in comparison. We are due, simple as that i feel. Would be awesome if mother nature lets us utilise the heat whilst its here.

[droughtbreaker]

Even a scenario half as intense as what EC is showing would cause a significant event. I have seen EC bomb crazy massive upper lows over VIC several times before and of course it never happened. What I wouldn't rule out though is at least some sort of an upper low and cold air behind it which would still cause a massive event if moisture levels remain elevated through the inland.

[Karl Lijnders]

LAPS already has the cold air on Tues AM well down south of AUS. Can see it analysed as a kink in the SW flow on the western flank of the ridging high. Should come up and filter through by Friday interacting with moisture and humidity over the SE.

Can see this scenario changing furiously as position is identified.