Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[I_Love_Storms]

Might be a repeat of the floods through Elizabeth Street in the 1970s!!

[johnno]

EC has backed off quite alot this morning might remember it also did yesterday morning as well so be interesting what it shows tonight

[Anthony Violi]

EC will come back on, there is an enormous amount of cold air thats coming into the region, it just needs to refine it as it gets closer. Expecting lots of weather still, then a great cold spell..

[johnno]

Looks like the planets are trying to align for quite a big event this weekend and early next week for us with EC this morning coming back onboard with that surface low and strong Upper low near us and now GFS is also showing it now in the 12z run following the 06z run with high rainfall in the South and both models have it slow moveing too. GASP was also showing it yesterday so confidance is slowly growing that something decent is around the corner. EC has thickness of 5460 this morning over Melbourne Sunday night now.. I remember someone saying 5400 is snow down to 1000 metres? what is 5460 then? 1500 metres? That would be incredible if this were to happen

[Anthony Violi]

Great news, forecast is out and it looks like tonight Ec run is sticking to its guns...showers and the chance of thunderstorms everyday from Sun - Tuesday. Hopefully it holds and the dams could get a real boost big time. Looks like i picked this one right, just need to luck to form close enough now.

[daviescr]

Great news, forecast is out and it looks like tonight Ec run is sticking to its guns...showers and the chance of thunderstorms everyday from Sun - Tuesday. Hopefully it holds and the dams could get a real boost big time. Looks like i picked this one right, just need to luck to form close enough now.

Definitely, very good call Anthony, and I agree with your older post - feels like we are well overdue. Seems I need to unblock that downpipe before sunday - over 70mm for Warranwood.
As you say, lets get those planets lined up now....

[Jake Smethurst]

Just longer out, it's not much, but a trough may move into Victoria on Thursday and Friday, with two areas of main instability, the east and west. I would watch these days for any thunderstorm activity. It's a while out, but could be an interesting two days, particularly Friday.

[adon]

Hmmm interesting but based on the last "big event" I will be only watching. Also keeping an eye on the potential cyclone off the Qld coast but that is a little ways off too.

[Jake Smethurst]

Well what I was talking about above is generally 'gone' from the models, they never handled the current event well, so everything after today would change. In longer-terms next week may hold the potential for unsettled conditions, but only pure speculation and low chances at this stage.

EDIT: Models agreeing again for storm activity on Thursday!

[droughtbreaker]

No substantial rain for the next 10 days at this stage but no noteworthy hot weather either and there is the chance of storms on Thursday with the change. DPs into double figures on that day so it looks half decent at this stage and could still upgrade.

[Anthony Violi]

Given the atmospheric profile and the tremendously cold uppers...if we get half a look in expect a massive storm outbreak..

[Jake Smethurst]

Just longer out, it's not much, but a trough may move into Victoria on Thursday and Friday, with two areas of main instability, the east and west. I would watch these days for any thunderstorm activity. It's a while out, but could be an interesting two days, particularly Friday.

Thus I am sticking with this, what I posted a little while ago. Though looks IMO to be some statewide activity now if something is going to happen. Very cold uppers atm, so things should go off if things come together.

[droughtbreaker]

That's the key. I doubt that the upper atmosphere will recover quickly from the cooling over the past two days but hot weather will return at the surface, add to that a whole heap of moisture through the inland yet again and a fairly decent low/trough coming through the state and we should see storms about.

Australia Day also looks very interesting at this stage.

[Twister]

You can have cold uppers but if you have little moisture then still get very little.

Uppers will be good but trough looks weak and moisture low, still i do expect some showers and the odd storm about but nothing great

Heat is coming back though up here looking at 5 days above 35c with 2-3 in the 38-40c range and into our second week of full sunshine and no clouds its getting old quick but it is summer.

Hope we can get a nice in feed of moisture, but with S SE winds state wide till about Wednesday avro, little time to get moisture back down here apart from the E Ne and around coastal Melb parts with sea breeze, lying surface moisture etc adding a bit of extra kick still don't expect anything great at this stage Dps to low for my liking and the air is pretty dry right across the Se apart from the coast and Far east coast

[Anthony Violi]

Twister Dps are progged in the mid teens on thursday for the whole state, if it gets to 30 its on like Donkey Kong.

[droughtbreaker]

Moisture is coming down as soon as the winds turn northerly again. There is a stack about to be advected through the continent from the NE and NW. Right at this instant it is very dry through the continent because there is a pumping high smack bang in the centre. Only a temporary situation luckily.

[Jake Smethurst]

I like that saying Anthony!

Yeah. Very good situation at this stage IMO for Thursday across most of the state, and then across the east/northeast on Friday. A trough in the region causing instability, rather high moisture values (which Anthony mentioned DP's in the teens) and cold uppers is basically what we need for good, deep afternoon convection. At least isolated thunderstorms are going to develop somewhere on Thursday, but I am thinking statewide activity.

And I'll back you up Andrew. Models (even though a long way out) are in agreement for a trough next Monday with showers/thunderstorms, persisting on Tuesday as the next frontal system approaches, so some interesting times ahead IMO.

[Twister]

Yeah i see the models are progging 12-16c Dps but i cant see were this much moisture will be coming from apart from S Se winds maybe in the South but not the north.
It is dry and warm to hot across MUCH of Australia and winds are only predicted to go NW N for about 24 hours or so before the change comes in, no were near enough time for moisture to recover in this part of the world, sadly this ain't the plain states but man i wish it was like so many lol.

Reason why i think it will be to dry for a nice storm outbreak
Look right around the country, right now, and the ONLY place that has Dps above 13c or so are the Qld Coast, Top end, and NE Nsw coast but moisture here been pushed out by the Southerly surge atm. Good moisture depth is Miles to the North and not heading back south for at least another day or 2

Winds will continue S SW SE across Much of the Se and SE inland for at least another 48 hours which brings us to Wednesday night before they shift more E NE N then NW ahead of the trough.
Also many of the models while progging good moisture over Vic yet are BONE dry in SA and NSW, were is our so called moist NW or NE wind supposed to be coming from.
Its pretty dry out there thanks to this low and the moisture is Very very far north and the trough feature dont look all that strong to me.
While the uppers will be cool which is great and the surface should be hot, 30s across much of the state, high 30s in the north, and touching 30c in the south.
That to wont be an issue for me its strength of trigger, but the bigger issue is moisture.

Friday avro in the Ne could be quite nice after 48 hours there of moisture recovery.

Now if pattern holds weak trough moves through, go more NE over weekend and early next week, with big high in Tasmen and OLD low moving SW, then that gets much more interesting but is way to far out.

Nice to have discussions in here, these long sunny hot days are boring me an still have over a week of them.

Its nice to dream

[I_Love_Storms]

My opinion is still too early too say, but we keep getting event after event, wouldn't be surprised with massive storm outbreak. If we get north easterlies expect a Dec 07 type outbreak.

[droughtbreaker]

I think it's more a case of moisture that was already there being cut off from the continent as we get this blast of cold air and the continent is dominated by a large closed high pressure cell which is recirculating hot and dry desert air over the inland. It's not helping that the north of VIC and southern NSW is being blasted with very dry and cold air that mixes with the hot air as it continues through the interior. Once the high moves east and clears away the moisture should flood back in as we return to more normal patterns and low pressure returns to the northern half of Aus.

I think it has something to do with the polar jet dominating our weather atm at the expense of the sub tropical jet. I'm sure someone has a more refined and accurate explanation than that but I'm pretty sure that's how it is working atm.