As we approach the end of January Preliminary data for January shows global temps to have now fallen below average for the 1st time in 2 years at this stage the figure comes to -0.12c below normal in a few days we will get the full data as January ends but I don't expect much change
Global anoamlies temps the past week show most of Euroasia below normal, The Pacific and alot of the Indian Ocean as well as Eastern and Northern parts of North America. Parts of the Artic has also seen very cold temps compare to normal of late.
Given the lag time and the peaking of La nina just in the last month or so, the whole year will be low, around the average or just below mark. And if we go into a double dip LA Nina as models are beginning to suggest then next year will be seriously cold.
On a side note the SST anomalies are very interesting, in that they are not warm where they usually are for a La Nina.
At least 70% is colder than normal and what is really interesting is the cold through the Atlantic from Florida to Scandanavia. Also the cyclones look to be having an impact for us as all the water surrounding OZ has cooled considerably, in fact the Indian is almost completely cold. So later this year there will also be a lag from the cooling of the Atlantic and Indian. If this trend continues we may see no warmer than average temps at all through the sea surface!
Not quite sure if La Nina is finished peaking. Should have a major effect as we go through the year and with the pending double dip situation of La Nina, we could see temps plunge further.
Not sure if this is the right place to ask but does anyone know of any link between extreme cold/snow event in the northern winter as we have seen lately and cold winters in Australia?
No link at all David, the American record freeze and snow is due to the extreme cold SST off the East Coast coupled with extreme cold Arctic air penetrating much further South than normal due to the jetstream movement.
One wonders whether its our turn this year for a repeat? Last year was nice start, maybe this will be the year it will freeze over..
BOM for the 1st time have recognised that perhaps theres a chance we may have a double dip La Nina
Strong La Niña event persists in the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 2 February 2011 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Australia continues to feel the effects of one of the strongest La Niña's on record. During La Niña events, tropical cyclone numbers are typically higher than normal during the November to April period, while summer daytime temperatures are often below average, particuarly in areas experiencing excess rainfall.
Climate indicators of ENSO continue to indicate a strong, mature La Niña, although there are clear signs the event has passed its peak. Pacific Ocean temperatures have increased, especially below the surface, while atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud patterns have eased from their peaks reached about a month ago.
These observations are consistent with long-range forecast models surveyed by the Bureau which show the Pacific gradually warming during the southern autumn. Given that March to June is the ENSO transition period, there is a spread among the model predictions for the middle of 2011. The most likely outcome is for a return to neutral conditions, but there is a chance of La Niña persisting for the rest of the year.
Well about time. Might give us a fair chance to prepare as a nation for more outrageous weather events and serious flooding. 1973/1974 TC season in the NT was fairly benign but 1974/1975 was savage with around 5-6 in the area including Ms Tracy.
I guess we have to prepare ourselves for more of these wild events.
La Nina will continue to cause problems for us southerners too.
Interesting in the fact we went through such an enormous dry and record breaking heat cycle - no doubting that, but here we are and we are drowning in this country and I am worried we have not even seen the last of it!
But isn't all this weather to do with climate change .... sorry, climate variability ......
Sorry wrong again, according to the greens the latest cyclone is a result of man made climate change.
Whatever the weather does thanks all for your informative posts. I like many of the other newcomers (and one who has limited knowledge) find your information valuable.
Here are the GFS forecast maps (global anomalies are up in the top right corner). It seems to be warming up slightly now with heat developing in northern Russia and in parts of Antarctica.
I feel for those in Perth and surrounds, seems like everywhere else is getting at least some cooler weather, but the heat just doesn't want to let up over there.
Nathan Morris 2013 Rainfall
Jan - 3.8mm
Feb - 27.0mm
Mar - 0.0mm
YTD - 30.8mm
And with another La Nina a distinct possibility later in the year temps for the next 18 months at least will eradicate all the warming of the last 30 years..