VIC: Severe Wind Event - Spring Fronts. Sep 2-8 2012

[aussiestormfreak]

Hello everyone!

Isn't it great that spring is FINALLY back with us - lengthening days, flowers, blossoms, growth, animals, festivals, parties, warming temperatures, and potentially stormy weather ahead! Yay!!

A heads-up for the first storm system of Spring 2012... here we go

Looks like a massive springtime cold front and low pressure trough wil rip across Victoria on Wednesday/Thursday next week, accompanied by an intense low pressure system way down south in the Southern Ocean.

The high pressure system currently affecting Eastern Australia should move into the Tasman Sea, and a mild-to-warm northerly airflow will sweep across Victoria from tomorrow onwards, freshening over the coming days as the storm approaches from the west and then strengthening possibly to gale-force on Tuesday/Wednesday - check out some of the temperatures ahead, 22C for Melbourne and 28C for Mildura on Tuesday!!

Generally sunny with early fog and possible frosts in spots early in the period then becoming warmer and blustery, cloud increasing over the western districts late on Tuesday, with rain areas, showers and thunderstorms developing then spreading eastwards across the State ahead of a colder westerly change, followed by showers and alpine snow.

Have fun guys, enjoy the warmer conditions before the cold returns, and let's hope for something decent stormwise on Wednesday maybe a CG-fest like September 28th last year?

Aussiestormfreak

HEY AWF - just wanted to change the title to lift the profile of a major weather event - Karl

[johnno]

The wind Tuesday night/Wednesday has the hallmarks of April 2nd-3rd 2008 System which caused alot of damage

[Rivergirl]

I remember that Johnno.

Hey aussiestormfreak, I love your happy posts lately and lots of smilies. I love Spring too

[aussiestormfreak]

The wind Tuesday night/Wednesday has the hallmarks of April 2nd-3rd 2008 System which caused alot of damage

Oh dear! I remember that storm... I was at a lecture at RMIT University when it struck, the wind was howling like a ghost, and my poor mum and sis were outside in the City streets and had to hold on to fences and pylons. The huge dust storm from the northwest dissipated just prior to reaching the CBD but I still had dust blown in my eyes and then of course the heavy rain afterwards! And as if that weren't enough, my family and I got caught in the train disruptions we made it as far as Campberwell before having to get off the train, but there was chaos regarding replacement buses to Box Hill, so we hoped back on the train and returned to Richmond before changing and taking the train down to Clayton where my dad picked us up. We went to visit my nana who was in hospital at the time so we didn't get home until after 11PM

I hear the strongest gusts recorded in Victoria during the storm were well in excess of 130km/h. And aside from its destructive and disruptive nature, the April 2008 storm was also deadly, with 4 people killed

I also have memories of March 3rd 2009 when we had severe weather on the tailend of the Black Saturday Bushfires here in Victoria. My family and I were afraid that the winds associated with the storm might bring a potential fire hazard to my area near Belgrave after a close-call on February 23rd. So we evacuated and spent the night down in Glen Waverley and waited until late on March 3rd when the gales finally died down and heavy rain moved in, by which time the potential fire threat was over

Thanks for the heads up Johnno, I've got to go into the City on Tuesday and then to Dandenong in the evening. The idea of potentially dangerous winds while on public transport late in the day doesn't sound good I'll be on the alert for severe weather warnings...

I remember that Johnno.

Hey aussiestormfreak, I love your happy posts lately and lots of smilies. I love Spring too

Thanks Rivergirl, yes springtime is my second-favourite season (summer comes first)! The only downside is the dust and pollen, I get bad hayfever and sinus but it beats the chill and gloom of winter

[Rhys_34]

Johnoo the BOM only have winds up to 35km/h for next Tuesday night/Wednesday, what model are you looking at that is pointing towards extreme winds for that period?

[johnno]

Hi Rhys, the BOM generally downplay things until 24 hours out its how the operate which is fair enough but as Hillybilly/David says 70 knot+ winds at 850hPa thats some really powerful winds there. All models have extreme winds late Tuesday into Wednesday. Watch the BOM upgrade the wind situation in coming days.

[Rhys_34]

Just had a look now Johnoo at the 850hpa model - between 64-80 knots for around 12 hours is pretty impressive as you've already said, I think places like Mt Hotham could be in some trouble!

[crikey]

Just a comment re :the general appearance of the southern hemisphere sat' pic 'tonight
as observed from met office global satellite image

THe SH atmosphere sub polar region has started to settle and the dramatic and vigorous cold pools are no longer present at lower latitudes..
This should lead to a decline in the extreme cold pools we have been experiencing
( maybe after this coming one)
THe fronts appeared to have generally shrunk poleward and are more segmented atm
The high pressure belt in the southern hemisphere is looking very strong with reduced cloud cover .
That may mean some cold clear frosty nights and quickly warming days?

The troughs arriving well to our west atm look quite weak although this one coming may be the exception by the sounds of the analysis here.

The Northern hemisphere looks crazy atm with a very active ITCZ ( intertropical; convergence zone) and lots of evidence of cyclone activity. However this is not unusual as this month of September is the peak month of cyclone season in the nth hemnisphere.

I am going to wait until the southern hemisphere cranks up again ( hopefully it will ) before l go to perisher to ski and watch some snow fall.

I was thinking and considered that models might downgrade this one due to subsiding sub polar activity atm
But lets see what happens.?

[mad*moo73]

I remember the April 2008 system well. My then 9yo daughter was on a scout camp in Gembrook. I was one very worried mummy thinking of her camping amoungst the huge gum trees in that wind. But she was fine the leaders said the was the only child in the troop who didn't freak out & all the kids got to camp in the eating marquee's until the storm finished. She said she had a ball!!!!!

[Geoff]

Can't for the life of me remember that wind storm, but then we get battered by so many up here they tend to blur into one after a while. Trying to get the garden ready for our first open day of the season in a couple of weeks, so I expect we'll get a tree down or a few big branches just to give me something else to do!
Down to 4c here at the moment, so probably going to be frosty down below by morning in the usual places.

[droughtbreaker]

Spring is a very windy time of year, especially September/October. Unfortunately, the northerlies are going to be pretty dry thanks to the current SST situation and what is happening over central AUS. Severe gales are one of the hazards of spring. We have had heaps of windy days in the last couple of weeks.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Didnt recall April 2008, but do now I checked out my photo's,
had branches (limbs) down both back and front, yes that one did leave a mess to clean up.
Open Garden sounds good, Im sure the wind isnt what you will be hoping for Geoff.

[crikey]

Thanks for the heads up re the high winds upcoming Hilly billy.

Yes.They look atrocious. More so for s/west WA and SA who look to cop the worst according to WATL
Tuesday the s/west of WA gets hammered and Wednesday Adelaide and Yorke peninsula could be in CAT 1 winds situation. The low has an engine of 975 hpascal!! in the southern ocean
Looks particularly nasty..

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... ndex.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
-----------------

In Victoria
ON wednesday arvo' and evening

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The western Vic , s/west Vic and south coastal areas the worst of the winds and the rest of Vic windy as well..
On Wednesday evening check out the barom pressure because the barom pressure could be around 988 -990 hpascals on the s/west Vic coast .

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The snow not looking promising in VIC ? Not sure that it will be cold enough.?
The 532 thickness line briefly touches the s/west coast of WA ,early tuesday morning.
maybe snow to low levels or hail there?
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It appears the cold front comes through first ( a storm line maybe?)
coming through around Wednesday morning
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The wind change . From . strong n/westerlies on Wednesday and then strong westerlies on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Oh well .. I enjoyed a lovely spring day in the garden here with a t shirt.
Not so , this coming Wednesday..

[aussiestormfreak]

I have to admit I'm getting very worried about this event... those northerlies could become potentially dangerous from Tuesday night into Wednesday, I'm guessing we'll see gusts and squalls well over 100km/h here in the Dandenong Ranges. I told my fiancee who lives in Fiji that we've got a nasty storm approaching Victoria this week and she's very concerned about my safety, given that she's been through tropical cyclones and is fully aware of my fascination for extreme weather and that I have to go into the City and then to Dandenong on Tuesday

[Karl Lijnders]

Good morning everyone,

Well what an excitement packed weekend it has been on here! LOL!

Nice weekend hey! What amazing weather we are having at the moment, lots of sunshine and mild temps to be had and more on the way over Monday/Tuesday!

Then the big blow! I think we could see some serious winds on Wednesday with northerly winds of 40-50kts widespread and up to 70kts over the ranges and Alpine areas, one to watch and forecasts to be reviewed this evening on that.

Rain will be confined to the west and ranges initially but spread east as we go into late in the week with cold fronts rotating around the deep low to the south.

Chance of storms later Wednesday as the winds tend northwesterly as well, but mainly fast moving high based storms with damaging winds.

Going to be an interesting couple of weeks!

[johnno]

The 2nd front that moves through with an associated low through Bass Straight Wednesday Night into early hours of Thursday morning now looks just as windy as the Northerlies ahead of the 1st front so the winds may relax slightly during Wednesday afternoon but still be blowing strong touching gale force then pick up again into Wednesday night before easing during Thursday afternoon so a very windy period coming up which may last 48 hours

[Karl Lijnders]

Yeah that second burst of weather could hold some very strong westerly gales too Johnno, storm force winds even, so one to watch for sure. Not so much rain for the Melbourne area at this time given the setup but sure will be windy.

Have to wait and see if we can kick into a SW flow on Saturday near a low pressure system, that could produce some good falls.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

20.4 very warm in the sun, although I think our bodies may not be adjusted to it just yet,
back to the vegie patch, far too hot in the hot house.

[aussiestormfreak]

23.9C was my maximum temperature earlier (minimum of only 5.5C last night)... the Sun has lost a bit of its warmth now due to the increasing high cloud moving overhead... on the plus side, the wind is very light atm, and what's that saying? 'A Ring around the Sun or Moon means rain (or snow) may come real soon'... a faint halo around the Sun atm

[Twiggy]

Got to a top of 23 here Beautiful, and still nice and warm under cloud. The wind and rain.... does anyone think it will hit here?? I am waiting for someone to spill ;P
Its about time we had something interesting.