September warm wave and troughs 26-28 September

[nafets]

Warm night, still only 18.2c here!

[93ben]

Warm night, still only 18.2c here!

Yeah still 18.7oC here! And currently there's a Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the North Central, North East, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.( http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/severe.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) with the Melbourne airport experiencing mean winds of 60-65 km/h over the last couple of hours with a wind gust of 96 km/h (52knots) recorded at 10:19pm.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

was over 18 deg @ 1am and 17.8 here @ 5.30am..
No wind in Koo Wee Rup, but still widows rattling here

[Karl Lijnders]

Quite warm overnight. It is nice to be trotting around in shorts and a T-Shirt.

Looking like a nice hot day across the state. Probably will mix out with our cloud cover and thundery showers about. I think 27C is a reasonable chance today.

Showers and storms will develop this afternoon and evening, lots of lightning, not much rain and strong and squally winds as the jet moves over the region.

We will have to wait till this time tomorrow morning for the rain to move in and conditions to cool down. Could be a stormy day tomorrow ahead of the cooler westerly change.

[Jake Smethurst]

A very balmy night which is good to have finally! Temperatures at home did not dip below 15 degrees. Had to drive to the catch a train this morning from Colac to Melbourne (which I'm currently on), and the sky certainly looks unstable across all directions; radar confirming the suspicions with very dry thunderstorm activity about the west early this morning.

For the rest of today Karl is vey much on the money. The AWF team going for 28 degrees today which is reasonable given the overnight warm conditions and the mix of sun that we should see at times today. Otherwise if there is too much cloud obviously we are not going to see those high temperatures, but I think we will nudge it.

I have re-updated the thunderstorm forecast this morning, so please check it out at the following link: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... ecast.html. You will notice there is no defined areas on the chart and that is because we are having a little trouble with it since last night, but I'm trying to fix this ASAP. The briefing is still there though.

Areas most at risk today are probably the northeast with extra forcing from the ranges and in the west ahead of and near the trough and where we have good convergence. Also should watch the seabreeze that will develop along the southwest and central coasts this afternoon which should act as trigger. But see the storm chart for more details.

Areas of rain should develop in the west overnight and then spread to central parts early Friday morning as Karl mentions. Looking at some significant falls about the east and northeast still where flooding renewals could be a concern.

And what a blast grand final day will be!! Though please note we have another thread currently open for the cold outbreak in relation to the front expected early Saturday.

Have a brilliant day all!! and hopefully you'll get lucky with a thundery shower!

[Karl Lijnders]

Quite a lot of lightning moving into the NW at the moment - should see activity become severe in the NE this afternoon with renewed convection.

Melbourne may also pick up a thunderstorm tonight and moreso tomorrow morning as moisture improves.

[MurrayRiver1712]

Big crack of Thunder in Echuca. Its not going to get anywhere near the forecast temp imho, but it was very windy earlier this morning, now there is no wind at all. The calm before the storm????

[Pane]

G'day

Well an interesting day up here, have had storm after storm pass over head with lots lightning but no rain. As each one passes it looks like another on its way.

When will they drop some rain??

The wind is still strong here

Cheers

[rikjpool]

Lol, this junk just dropped a big branchy bolt....

[MurrayRiver1712]

One big grey cloud dropping forked lightning bolts over and over again near Echuca.

[rikjpool]

Storms like these are almost impossible to chase/forcast... enjoy while you can!!!

[stratospear]

Mildura is certainly in the oven today: Max so far of 35.4c with DP of -7.5c (6% humidity). Not good for non-irrigated crops.

Across the border it's 36c in Port Augusta and 38.6c at Oodnadatta atm.

[93ben]

I have re-updated the thunderstorm forecast this morning, so please check it out at the following link: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... ecast.html. You will notice there is no defined areas on the chart and that is because we are having a little trouble with it since last night, but I'm trying to fix this ASAP. The briefing is still there though.

Can you change the url for "Link to the AWF weather forecasting services" at the bottom please. It gets annoying having to go to the front page to get to the page. Thanks

Anyway it's been pretty hot and windy here. Currently 24.8o!

[rikjpool]

Watch for another line to explode just west of Shepparton, can see it bubbling away from here in the last 15min just gone nuts. Moving so quick though....

[rikjpool]

Interesting to note that storms are still forming north of Mildura even with obs of 35/-4 at Mildura, 33/-3 at Renmark and 36/1 at Broken Hill.... Wow

[James]

anything on the cards for melbourne?

currently its clear to the west, but to the east very moitsure type thundery clouds

[93ben]

anything on the cards for melbourne?

currently its clear to the west, but to the east very moitsure type thundery clouds

It's pretty clear here in NE Melbourne. No stormy looking clouds here.

[norwester]

A few claps of thunder up here in Mildura and about 4 drops of rain about half an hour ago but nothing much else happening ATM! Feels a lot more humid than the BOM figures. Millions of mosquitos around though.

[nafets]

Been in NE VIC today, mostly Shepparton saw some great storm structure ! As you said rikjpool watched it exploded, with lots of convection going up anywhere north of about Nagambie. Very unstable in the late morning there, although mostly cloudy. Had a wall cloud (sort of i guess hahaha) move over, associated with a few strange cloud signatures i haven't seen before (not that i've seen much lol). Didn't see much lightning however, i was expecting more going by the lighting tracker. Some very tall tops though, i'll post a few pics i caught soon. btw not the best shots or camera hahahah...

[nafets]

Btw I was surprised that we were seeing storms in dryish conditions, but i guess there wasn't much rain associated. Didn't feel humid in Shepparton, norwester maybe some moister air has moved over/is over you??